26-Year-Old Democrat Might Win Major House Upset Due to One Unlikely Demographic, Poll Shows

Kat Abughazaleh, a 26-year-old former social media influencer, may win a crowded Democratic primary in a major upset due to her strong backing by men and despite lackluster support from women, a recently released poll shows.

Abughazaleh, who worked for Media Matters for America, is in second place among 14 Democrats vying to represent Illinois’ Ninth district, trailing Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss by only four percentage points, according to a poll released Tuesday. The survey of likely primary voters, conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) and commissioned by the Evanston RoundTable, showed Biss — widely considered the race’s frontrunner — with 24% of the vote, Abughazaleh with 20% and State Sen. Laura Fine in third place with 14%, with 17% of respondents indicating they were “not sure.”

However, when the poll’s results were broken down by sex, a stark divide emerged. Among men, the Gen Z media personality led with 29% of the vote, followed by Biss at 21% and Fine in a distant third at 12%. However, among female voters, Biss led by double digits, garnering 28% of the vote, with Fine in second at 15% and Abughazaleh tied for third place with State Sen. Mike Simmons at 12%. (RELATED: Married Democrat Candidate Cozies Up To Much Younger Far-Left Opponent Over Drinks)

Furthermore, 47% of men polled said they have a favorable view of Abughazaleh compared to only 31% who had an unfavorable impression of her. More women on the other hand had an unfavorable view of the influencer (36%) than a favorable view of her (34%), according to the poll.

The Gen Z candidate also enjoyed a significant lead with respondents who identified as “Gender non-binary” with 37% backing her and only 11% supporting Biss.

Abughazaleh’s campaign did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.

PPP poll | 3/9-3/10

US House | #IL09 Democratic primary 2026

Gender breakdown

Men:
Kat Abughazaleh 29%
Daniel Biss 21%
Laura Fine 12%
Bushra Amiwala 8%
Phil Andrew 7%
Mike Simmons 7%
—
Women:
Daniel Biss 28%
Laura Fine 15%
Kat Abughazaleh 12%
Mike Simmons 12%
Bushra Amiwala… https://t.co/LCKmZ22W58

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) March 11, 2026

A previous PPP/Evanston RoundTable poll of the Ninth district’s Democratic primary released on Feb. 24 showed Biss with 24% of the vote, followed by Abughazaleh with 17% and Fine with 16%.

Abughazaleh’s campaign released a statement on Wednesday titled, “The Abughamentum is Ours,” citing the results of the more recent poll.

“A new poll released by the Evanston RoundTable shows congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh rapidly closing the gap in the Illinois Ninth Congressional District primary, as AIPAC-linked groups move to spend over $1 million attempting to stop the campaign’s growing momentum,” the statement read.

“The momentum is ours. This is now a two way race,” Abughazaleh said via her campaign’s statement. “From the start, we wanted to run a different type of campaign focused on people, their needs, and a democracy in peril. We have been unflinching in our opposition to the authoritarianism being carried out by this administration and its secret police.”

“And if you’re reading this and you are sick and tired of the same old shit, there is same-day voter registration at the polls,” the young leftist former influencer added.

inbox from the kat abughazaleh campaign: pic.twitter.com/rZUfx9ErGZ

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) March 11, 2026

The Ninth district is a heavily Democratic seat in the Chicago area that voted for failed 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by a 37-point margin. The winner of the March 17 Democratic primary is all but guaranteed to win the November general election to succeed retiring incumbent Democratic Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky — who has represented the seat since 1999, the same year Abughazaleh was born.

If the former Media Matters employee wins her March 17 primary, she will be set to become the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. The current holder of this record is Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was 29 when she won her first House race in 2018. (RELATED: Gen Z Progressive Says She Was Too Sleepy To Make It To Key Campaign Event)

A grand jury indicted Abughazaleh and five co-defendants after they allegedly blocked law enforcement outside an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in September 2025.

PPP surveyed 741 likely Democratic primary voters via text-to-web and IVR phone from March 9 to 10. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

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