France: A Country Perpetually at Odds with Itself | The American Spectator

French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed his fifth prime minister since he took office — that’s one every 18 months.

Maybe it’s just the way it is — with the French, I mean. For more than 1,000 years before 1789 (with the literal “beheading” of the Ancien Régime), France had a variety of governments. In fact, there have been 18 political systems in power since Clovis I pulled all the chieftains together in the 6th century to create the Frankish Kingdom. Among the efforts to rule, there have been the Republics (five so far) as well as the erstwhile Napoleonic Empire, several variations on the monarchy, and finally authoritarianism in WWII.

France is a country that is, en masse, prone to disagreement, pessimism, and to some degree self-destruction, but individually it seems devoted to the pursuit of the good life… joie de vivre. France is a country that seems (mostly) proud of its past but often distrustful of the future, especially when it may involve change.

There are countries in the world that certainly experience problematic issues for various reasons — geography, resources, etc. France seems to confuse what its real problems are with those that don’t exist. The French — and not just what some may call the “intellectual French” — prefer constructing generalizations and then applying them to explicate facts. Other nations seem to prefer the more scientific approach — examining the facts before constructing their theories.

In opinion surveys across France, the nation, en masse, is more pessimistic and dissatisfied than its citizens, individually. Asked if their own lives are going well, French people are likely to say “oui.” Asked if the country is going well, they are almost certain to say “non.”

Charles de Gaulle famously said that it was impossible to govern a country that had 246 types of cheese. Alas, I am told by a French colleague (of both American and French education) that such a figure is “without merit.” Apparently, de Gaulle underestimates the problem. “There are,” my colleague continued, “over 500 types of French cheese — some people (especially French people) insist the number is closer to 1,000.” The French, it seems, are in perpetual disagreement.

Ensconced in an Economic Quagmire

With the collapse, Monday, of Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government (amid attempts to rein in the country’s expanding sovereign debt), France’s economic stability looms large over the EU’s own crises with the Ukraine war, the White House, and dissent amongst its 27 members.

The French government’s failure to put a lid on the country’s growing sovereign debt, together with protracted political infighting, could plunge the nation into an “economic quagmire.”

France has one of the highest debt levels in the European Union, currently standing at €3.35 trillion ($3.9 trillion), roughly 113 percent of GDP, a ratio that is expected to climb to 125 percent by 2030. Its budget deficit is already projected at 5.4-5.8 percent of GDP this year, well above the bloc’s 3 percent limit.

The “Big Three” rating agencies — S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch — are all watching closely. S&P, along with Fitch, has already shifted France’s credit outlook to “negative,” signaling trouble ahead. Should a credit rating agency downgrade France’s rating from AA to A, it would prompt institutional investors to sell off its government bonds.

A downgrade isn’t just a number on a spreadsheet; it could have real-world consequences. As James Novotny from Jupiter Asset Management put it, “it would be very serious, as people would be forced to review their portfolios.”

There are a number of institutions (e.g., central banks and insurance companies) that are prohibited from investing in securities below AA (investment grade),

On Monday, Bayrou received a vote of “no confidence” in the National Assembly, which he had called himself to secure backing for a drastic austerity plan. The measures, which included slashing public sector jobs, curbing welfare spending, as well as axing two public holidays, were vehemently opposed by the right-wing National Rally, the Socialists, and the leftist France Unbowed.

An Elabe poll ahead of the parliamentary vote revealed most respondents were also against the proposed measures, with two-thirds of respondents in two polls wanting President Macron to resign.

On Tuesday, however, the French president appointed outgoing Defense Minister and loyalist, Sébastien Lecornu, as France’s new prime minister — the second one in 8 months.

French Debt — A Danger to the Eurozone

The truth is: Paris, at least in the near term, has little chance of reining in its finances amid ongoing political destabilization. Moreover, France’s burgeoning sovereign debt, coupled with political infighting, could threaten the fiscal stability of the entire eurozone, Deutsche Welle has reported.

Friedrich Heinemann of the ZEW Leibniz Center in Mannheim, Germany, told the outlet, “…we should be worried. The eurozone is not stable at this point.” Heinemann added that he doubts France will find a way out soon, given the bitter political turmoil.

Yet, despite its soaring debt and the growing budget deficit, Paris plans to increase its military spending to €64 billion in 2027, double what it spent in 2017.

French President Macron, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen, and Germany’s newly elected Chancellor Friedrich Merz have repeatedly invoked a supposed Russian threat as the reason for military spending hikes throughout the EU. Moscow has consistently dismissed such claims as “nonsense,” accusing EU leaders of fear-mongering to justify inflated military budgets just to cover up their domestic economic failures.

In May, EU member states approved a €150 billion ($169 billion) debt program for additional arms procurement.

In the 50 years since De Gaulle disappeared from French political life, the French have voted for change, one way or another, in virtually every national election but one. And their distrust of all politicians and all reforms is now magnified by online “halls of mirrors” through social media platforms that constantly sow discord, with no change in sight.

What De Gaulle perhaps meant to convey in his comments about the French is that it is impossible to govern a country that is perpetually at odds with itself, a country that constantly demands change and yet rejects all efforts to change.

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