Newslinks for Wednesday 17th September

One in, none out – migrant deal

“Sir Keir Starmer’s migrant returns deal with France is in disarray after a judge paused an Eritrean man’s deportation hours before he was due to fly. The Home Office had warned that any delay to the man’s removal would undermine the deterrent effect of the one-in, one-out scheme because other migrants would use the same blocking tactic. However, in an emergency hearing in the High Court on Tuesday, Mr Justice Sheldon granted a pause of at least 14 days to the man’s deportation so he could provide further evidence to his claim that he had been a victim of modern-day slavery. The judge granted the “short period of interim relief” after the Home Office legal team conceded that the migrant could not submit the evidence once he had been deported to France. The 25-year-old man, who was granted anonymity by the judge and was referred to as CTK, had been booked on a flight to France on Wednesday at 9am. However, his lawyer argued that he faced a “real risk of destitution” if deported to France and applied for a “postponement” to the migrant’s removal until his case could be heard in full. The injunction, the first legal challenge of its kind to be heard in the courts, deals a blow to the prime minister’s one-in, one-out migrant deal with France. It came after the Home Office failed to deport migrants to France for a second day in a row to give more time to consider unresolved claims relating to human rights. After the ruling, Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “The government’s latest Channel migrant gimmick is now in complete disarray. Two flights, a legal defeat in court and zero deportations. Not a single migrant has been removed, yet thousands more continue to arrive.”” – The Times

• Human rights fanatic Starmer is sunk… by human rights! Lefty lawyer PM Keir sees launch of ‘one-in, one-out’ migrant flights grounded by court – Daily Mail
• Second ‘one in, one out’ deportation flight takes off with NO migrants on board in another huge blow for Starmer – The Sun
• Revealed: The pro-migrant campaigners’ guide on how to ground ‘one in, one out’ flights – Daily Telegraph
• Migrant deportations yet to begin as Downing Street denies ‘shambles’ – ITV News
• Chaos as Labour can’t say when migrants will be returned to France after flight cancelled – Daily Express

Comment:

• The public will not forgive Labour for its failure to stem illegal immigration – David Shipley, Daily Telegraph
• Labour must ditch stunts in favour of proper, bold action to end the boats crisis and end the farce – The Sun Says
• Countless parents are terrified – Labour must realising importing danger is not compassion – Jess Gill, Daily Express

Trump arrives on his second state visit, to attacks from Sadiq Khan

“Sir Sadiq Khan has launched a fresh attack on Donald Trump on the first day of the US president’s unprecedented second state visit to Britain. The Labour Mayor of London accused Mr Trump of fuelling “divisive, far-Right politics” and said his actions in the White House were “straight out of the autocrat’s playbook”. The remarks are likely to cause a fresh headache for Sir Keir Starmer, who hopes the state visit will become a political triumph for the Government after a torrid few weeks. In an article for the Guardian, Sir Sadiq said: “President Donald Trump and his coterie have perhaps done the most to fan the flames of divisive, far-Right politics around the world in recent years. When he came to the UK on his first state visit, I highlighted how the president had deliberately used xenophobia, racism and ‘otherness’ as an electoral tactic, introducing a travel ban on a number of Muslim-majority countries and praising white nationalists in Charlottesville, Virginia. Six years later, the tactics we see from today’s White House seem no different. Scapegoating minorities, illegally deporting US citizens, deploying the military to the streets of diverse cities. These actions aren’t just inconsistent with western values – they’re straight out of the autocrat’s playbook.” Mr Trump arrived at London Stansted Airport with his wife, Melania, last night and the couple are due to meet the King at Windsor Castle later today. On a visit to Scotland in July, the president called Sir Sadiq a “nasty person” and said he was doing a “terrible job”… The Telegraph revealed earlier this week that Donald Trump is expected to go easy on Sir Keir Starmer during his state visit because he understands the Prime Minister is “on the ropes”. Sir Keir on Monday insisted he would not resign amid intense scrutiny over what he knew and when about former US ambassador Lord Mandelson’s friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Ahead of Mr Trump’s visit, two former US officials well-connected with the White House told The Telegraph that the US president was likely to go easy on Sir Keir, given the domestic political pressure. One former official said: “This trip will be about the splendour of Windsor Castle, inspecting the troops, the big banquet. This is a big deal for him. And the plan is to keep it about that.” They added that Mr Trump had acute political antennae for allies in trouble and knew that Starmer “was on the ropes”.” – Daily Telegraph

• ‘It’s all f**ked’: Starmer’s MP mutiny deepens as Trump flies in – The i
• Plan to slash US steel tariffs shelved hours before Donald Trump’s UK visit – The Guardian
• Republican gala dinner in Windsor disrupted by climate protesters ahead of Trump’s UK visit – The Independent
• Four arrested after Trump-Epstein photo projected on Windsor Castle ahead of presidential visit – ITV News

Comment:

• Now is a good time to state the lessons from America – William Hague, The Times
• Trump visit puts focus on pageantry after PM’s tough fortnight – Chris Mason, BBC News
• The big question which could drive a wedge between Trump and Starmer – Hugo Gye, The i
• ‘No courage, no judgement, no backbone,’ thundered Kemi as just ONE Labour MP defended Keir Starmer – Quentin Letts, Daily Mail
• After the far right’s march on our streets, Londoners must show Trump we reject his politics of fear – Sadiq Khan, The Guardian
• Why I’m boycotting Trump’s state banquet – Ed Davey, The i

Tax fears mount as productivity blow confronts Reeves with bigger fiscal gap

“Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been privately warned by the UK fiscal watchdog that its estimates for productivity are likely to be downgraded ahead of the Budget, making big tax rises more probable. Officials told the Financial Times that Reeves would blame the previous Conservative government for the expected downgrade, arguing that the Office for Budget Responsibility was giving a “historical” verdict on Tory rule from 2010 to 2024. “We don’t know precisely what they are going to say on productivity, but we have been given indications there will be a downgrade,” said one official. People briefed on Budget preparations have warned the total fiscal hole could amount to “tens of billions” of pounds — perhaps to £30bn. The OBR downgrade would make up a large portion of the gap. Analysts have predicted the OBR could weaken public finances by at least £9bn by downgrading its productivity estimates, which are seen as too optimistic at present. Although Reeves has insisted she will stick to Labour’s election manifesto commitment not to increase income tax, value added tax or national insurance, the OBR downgrade could provide cover for her to change her mind. The official said: “The untold story of this Budget is the historical legacy of the Conservatives that nobody knew about. The OBR productivity downgrade could amount to half or three-quarters of the fiscal hole.” They added: “This doesn’t reflect on what’s happened since the election, but we are the ones picking up the bill.” Sir Mel Stride, shadow chancellor, said: “Every time the numbers don’t add up, Rachel Reeves blames someone else. But the truth is the markets are losing confidence . . . Be in no doubt, any downgrade will be down to the chancellor’s economic mismanagement.” Reeves promised after her first Budget in October 2024 that she would not come back with more tax increases or extra borrowing.” – Financial Times

• Reeves to blame black hole on Tories as OBR slashes forecasts – Daily Telegraph
• Watchdog’s warning increases chance of Rachel Reeves raising taxes – The Times
• Latest inflation figures spell disaster for Rachel Reeves as UK economy in crisis – Daily Express

Comment:

• Trump’s tax cuts are making America even richer – if Reeves were smart she’d follow suit – Brian Monteith, Daily Telegraph
• How Rachel Reeves could fill a big part of the £50bn black hole and help small investors – Jeff Prestridge, Daily Mail
• The economy is in freefall – unless you’re in the public sector – Michael Simmons, Daily Telegraph

> Today: John Redwood: There is a magic money tree – the private sector, sensibly taxed

> Yesterday: Mel Stride: Make no mistake, Labour is driving us over an economic cliff entirely of their making

News in brief:

• Britain is becoming a nation of hermits – Patrick West, The Spectator
• Labour’s technocratic tyranny – Wessie du Toit, Unherd
• Will Kruger’s defection remake the British Right? – Lee David Evans, CapX
• Britain needs intellectual Reform – James Price, The Critic