Poll: New Jersey Governor’s Race Too Close to Call | The American Spectator

With 40 days to go until the election, a new poll from Emerson College has found that the New Jersey governor’s race is tied. The survey showed Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli tied at 43 percentage points each in the blue state, with 11 percent of voters undecided and 3 percent backing someone else.

Ciattarelli’s strength is powered by older voters, winning those over 50 years of age by a substantial 52 percent to 36 percent margin, while Sherrill wins voters 49 and under. Although Sherrill leads among women by 10 percentage points, Ciattarelli’s advantage with men is an even larger 12 percentage points.

Ciattarelli is a former state assemblyman who is mounting his third consecutive bid for governor. In his first campaign in 2017, he was defeated in the Republican primary by then Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, while in 2021, he won the Republican nomination but was narrowly defeated by incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, who is now term-limited and unable to run for reelection. Betting that the third time might just be the charm, he’s hammered a message emphasizing affordability and bringing down utility costs. He’s also tied Sherrill to Murphy, whose job approval rating is 9 percentage points underwater, and was largely seen as getting the better of her in their recent debate. (RELATED: Tax Hikes and Upset Voters Could Be Clincher for GOP in New Jersey’s Governor Race)

Sherrill, for her part, has represented a blue congressional seat in the northern part of the state since 2019. After winning a crowded Democratic primary with just a 34 percent plurality of the vote, Sherrill has run a low-key campaign that’s mainly focused on tying Ciattarelli to President Donald Trump. But that may not be enough: according to Emerson, New Jersey voters split 51 percent to 49 percent on whether they would rather the next governor stand up to the president or work alongside him, a statistically insignificant difference. Sherrill has also been criticized for her statement in the aftermath of conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s death; while she condemned his killing, she also accused him of holding “vile” views and that he wanted a “Christian nationalist government and to roll back the rights of women and Black people.”

Trump lauded the poll result on Thursday morning, posting on Truth Social:

Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey. Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America. She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!! President DJT

New Jersey had one of the largest swings to Trump in the 2024 election. While former President Joe Biden won the state by 16 percentage points, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris only held it by fewer than six. Although sparse polling in 2024 never had it close, that result was not too different from core presidential battleground states such as Arizona, which Trump won by 5.5 percentage points. 

Many polls failed to accurately predict the results of the 2024 presidential election. Emerson, however, was widely considered to have been one of the year’s better pollsters, notably earning an A- rating from statistician Nate Silver. Their final 2024 swing state polls found Trump narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, tied in Nevada and Wisconsin, and narrowly behind in Michigan; Trump would go on to win all of them. In the 2021 gubernatorial election, Emerson’s final poll had Murphy leading Ciattarelli 50 percent to 44 percent; Murphy would win by a somewhat narrower 51 percent to 48 percent. Notably, Emerson was one of the only pollsters who accurately predicted that far-left candidate Zohran Mamdani would overtake pervert and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for New York City’s mayoralty.

The Emerson poll was conducted September 22-23, 2025, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

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