A new poll on the Virginia gubernatorial race shows the contest narrowing, with Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears just 3 percentage points behind Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger.
The latest A2 Insights survey of 771 Virginia likely voters, conducted Sept. 26-28, shows Ms. Spanberger at 47.7% and Ms. Earle-Sears at 44.6%, the slimmest margin for the race in months.
The poll shows that 6.4% remain undecided and 1.3% support another candidate.
The election is Nov. 4.
The Washington Times reached out to the Earle-Sears and Spanberger campaigns for comment.
Ms. Spanberger, a former congresswoman, leads among voters who are younger, female, nonwhite, college-educated, liberal and moderate.
Ms. Earle-Sears is ahead among older voters, males, white, non-college-educated and conservative.
Both candidates are overwhelmingly supported by their liberal and conservative bases, but Ms. Spanberger leads among moderates by 16 percentage points.
Previous surveys had Ms. Spanberger with double-digit leads, including a Christopher Newport University poll conducted from Sept. 8-14 that had Ms. Spanberger up by 12 points.
As both campaigns launch political ads and GOTV efforts to bring out their early voters, more recent polls have shown the margins tightening to single digits.
The last co/efficient poll, conducted Sept. 22-23, showed Ms. Spanberger ahead by 6 points, 49% to 43%.
In the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia, Republican Glenn Youngkin eked out a victory over Democrat Terry McAuliffe, 50.58% to 48.64%.
Virginia’s off-year election, along with New Jersey’s contests, is considered a bellwether race to assess where the parties stand ahead of the 2026 midterm elections and the Democrats’ chances to recapture Congress.
Republicans are reportedly driving early turnout, according to numbers released by the Virginia Public Access Project, with 146,223 ballots cast in the first week of voting.
That is twice the 69,242 ballots cast at this time during the 2021 Virginia governor’s race.
The Virginia Public Access Project numbers show that, since Sept. 23, almost half of all early ballots have been cast in congressional districts that lean Repjublican or are GOP strongholds.
A third of the ballots cast came from Democrat-leaning districts, while nine competitive races brought in more than 12,000 ballots.
Virginia and New Jersey Democrats may need to shift their strategy if they want to win their respective gubernatorial races.
According to an analysis by Impact Social, first reported by Newsweek, the party “risks losing” both contests if Democrats continue on the same campaign path.
Impact Social evaluated social media exchanges about both candidates in the Virginia race, which showed that Ms. Spanberger has a net sentiment of -28, while Ms. Earle-Sears’ sentiment is +18.
The difference is because the left is “venting against Trump while failing to support the Democratic candidate or attack their opponent,” the report says. “Relying on Trump as a mobilizing foil can only go so far. If Democrats cannot channel that oppositional energy into genuine support for their own candidates, they risk losing these contests.”
Still, Ms. Spanberger has an enormous 2-to-1 financial advantage over Ms. Earle-Sears, helping the Democrat dominate the airwaves.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball label the election as a likely win for Ms. Spanberger.
