Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus groups – “Taxes keep going up and up and up with no tangible pay-off”

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

My focus groups this month took place in Sheffield with Labour voters interested in other parties of the left; Bradford, with Labour voters tempted by Reform; Peterborough, with former Tories who switched to Reform in 2024; and Northampton, with former Tories who switched to Labour.

Though it has preoccupied Westminster, few in our groups had any grasp of the details of the China spying controversy, and many had not noticed it at all. For those who had, the affair seemed to combine shady deals with the kind of legal shenanigans at which Keir Starmer specialises:

“He’s a yes sir, no sir kind of guy. Or I’ll do this for you and you do this for me”

“It’s just another aspect of weakness. We don’t have strong leadership. The current government are very legalistic and concerned all the time about legal processes, which creeps into a lot of things;” “I think there was a bit of a backhander;” “Because China has so much power, we need to be on their side, so it’s been swept under the carpet;” “I think we’re more like that because of who’s running the country at the moment. He’s a yes sir, no sir kind of guy. Or I’ll do this for you and you do this for me;” “I think it coincides with the embassy thing;” “Most of our power stations are Chinese-owned anyway, so they don’t really want to be battling with them;” “For them to be convicted we had to decare China an enemy of the state, which of course we haven’t done. But we’re under constant cyberattack and we know one of the leading parts of that is China.”

“It’s nothing to do with immigration, it’s to do with having more control”

Opinion in groups of all political backgrounds was overwhelmingly against plans for a new mandatory digital ID scheme. A few were unbothered (though there were no enthusiasts): “We’re already there in a lot of ways. If it’s not going to cost any more, how different is it from walking around with a mobile phone?” The objectors felt much more strongly however, for four main reasons. First, they argued that other means of proving identity already exist and that there would be no effect on illegal working since unscrupulous employers would continue to ignore the rules: “You’re not supposed to be able to work without one of these, but you’re not supposed to work without a National Insurance number. So what’s the difference?” “Can you see the guys in the carwash having digital IDs? The people who employ them aren’t going to ask for digital IDs anyway. They don’t care.”

Second, the costs and practicality: “They say it’s free now but down the line they’ll end up charging you for it. When you renew it, you’ll have to pay for it;” “Old people don’t have smartphones, they don’t have digital technology. What’s it going to mean for them?”

Third, many felt the scheme was really designed (or would eventually be used) to monitor and control people and their behaviour: “I don’t think the real reason is anything to do with immigration, it’s to do with having more control. They’ll want to know what you’re spending, who you’re spending with, what you’re getting paid…;” “It’s like the covid passport. If you don’t get your jabs, you can’t go anywhere, you can’t do this…;” “It’s like China. They know who you are, if you jaywalk, they dock money from your account and don’t even notify you. They know your face. They can alter your credit score;” “Are you going to need it to vote?”

Fourth, they worried that there was a huge risk of hacking or abuse, which they did not trust the government to prevent: “It just feels like a pool of information to be hacked into. Your driving licence, your passport, your bank record, are all in separate places. This is putting it all in one pot;” “We had JLR being hacked, and the other day I had a notification that my data had been exposed with Renault. The NHS was done a couple of years back. And now we’re meant to expect the government to protect all of this?”

“I came across this thing on Facebook that Keir Starmer had put out about stopping the boats and I thought, is this a fake account?”

 A few had heard about the government’s plans to toughen requirements on indefinite leave to remain, including a high standard of English and no criminal record. While many thought the policy sounded like a step in the right direction, they also tended to believe it was a reaction to the rise of Reform and therefore not sincere. More importantly, they felt it missed the point, since the illegal migration was the bigger problem: “It’s to do with the growing popularity of Reform. That’s why they’re waving the flag. They’re reacting rather than acting;” “I like the idea, though I’m not sure they’re going to enforce it. But it’s not the ones coming here legally who are the problem;” “They are supposed to have been doing this for years, but I can tell you from direct personal experience that there are people in positions of great trust and responsibility in hospitals and care homes who don’t speak a word of English. So it’s all just flannel and nonsense;” “I came across this thing on Facebook that Keir Starmer had put out about stopping the boats and I thought, is this a fake account? But it wasn’t. And it shocked me. I thought, oh wait, you are adopting some of the Reform policies.”

At the same time, a number of habitual Labour voters were worried that the party seemed to be pandering to the right: “A lot of the talk around immigration doesn’t shout ‘Labour’ to me, or the ID cards and things like that. It doesn’t feel like the government I initially voted for;” “I’ve always associated Labour with the people, but now I feel they’re attacking people more than the Tories ever have;” “He’s too busy trying to win the votes of everyone else, not the people who actually voted for them.”

There were some doubts about Reform’s policy of scrapping indefinite leave to remain altogether, even among participants concerned about immigration: “It’s not as black and white as that. I think it depends on the individual. If they’re contributing to the country and the economy, then absolutely they should be allowed to stay. But it’s those who are coming in and taking the benefits that are increasing;” “How many skilled workers would be in that position? Would my husband not get leave to remain and have to live all his life extending the visa every year and worried he’d have to leave?” “There’s no grey in the middle with them, is there?”

 “Taxes go up and up and up, with no tangible pay-off”

Participants universally expected tax rises in next month’s budget, with a few Labour voters supporting the idea as long as they landed on other people (“I’d be in favour of a wealth tax personally. Most of the money in this country is hoarded by this low percentage of people. The only way you can close the gap is with a wealth tax or inheritance tax, those sorts of things”).

However, most – including Labour voters – were angry if resigned at the idea of further increases, especially since they felt they had nothing to show for their ever-higher contributions: “If they cut waiting times or built some more schools or reduced class sizes, we could perhaps get more on board with it. But it feels like they’re going up and up and up, with no tangible pay-off.” Many also resented what they saw as large-scale waste: “Starmer is not only giving away those islands, he’s paying to have them back. We just keep giving money away;” “I know people who are on PIP and work full-time and have a disability car, and they just don’t need it;” “In the NHS the waste is mind-boggling. It’s eye-watering. That’s what needs to be hit.”

However, the longer-term state of the national finances felt to many like a second-order issue – or at least one with no discernible consequences for them personally: “I never quite understand it because one party seems to run up massive debts and the country still survives, and then the next party comes in and says ‘we’ve got to repay these debts, we can’t survive’. But we were surviving. And actually, it doesn’t affect us as individuals. It’s all a bit over my head, the national debt.” Some also argued that the Conservatives were not in an ideal position to be pointing to Labour’s failings on the budget deficit: “They’re also the ones who got us into this dire state. So I feel like anything they say now, they had their chance to get us out of it and they didn’t. They made it a lot worse and then passed it on to Labour.”

“If Reform get in, I don’t want Reform making the human rights for our country”

A few more than usual had heard from Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives following the party’s conference. Several doubted the wisdom of withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights. While they all thought the government be able to deport foreign criminals and illegal migrants there were worries that leaving the ECHR would undermine rights in the UK more widely, with some saying they did not trust our parties (especially Reform) treat people fairly in government: “I’m sure that law does help us when it comes to workers’ rights and the right to protest, freedom of movement and so on, which shouldn’t be trampled on. I do agree that if the government says we’re going to deport you because you’ve committed a criminal act or you’re here illegally, they should at least have the right to do that. But I think if they just pulled out, it would be open to abuse on other things as well;” “I think letting a country dictate their own human rights is really dangerous, which is why international law and conventions are so important. I don’t trust Labour or the Tories, I don’t trust the British government to be the final step of the law. If Reform get in, I don’t want Reform making the human rights for our country. It’s like Ofsted.”

There was more support for the plan to abolish Stamp Duty on the purchase of a main home, on the grounds that it would make it easier for younger people in particular to buy property and boost the economy more widely: “That’s not a bad idea. It brings work all the way down the chain, doesn’t it?” “They want people to be able to buy houses. I’ve got children who are in the workforce and saving, hopefully to buy a house. That’s what they are driving forward.”

“They’re trying to do a cleaner version of Reform”

However, some pointed out that such promises were easily discarded, especially on tax, or that something would be hidden in the small print (“There’s always something behind it when they take something [like a tax] away”). And despite having complained about government waste and the ballooning welfare budget, Tory plans to cut spending made some nervous: “We went through with austerity for years and it’s still not worked. I thought everything was cut to the bare bones, or that’s what it felt like;” “I think it’s a tough swallow to expect people to sign up for more cuts. Cameron said we were going to have to make hard choices when he came in. He brought in the word austerity and that was 15 years ago.”

Despite these policy nuggets, participants tended to feel that the Conservatives had not yet set out a distinctive agenda or fully redefined themselves: “They’ve lost their traditional low taxes, low-intervention [position] – in the Boris era that sort of dissolved. And they haven’t really established who they are as a party right now;” “There’s only so much time you can give them to contemplate and assess what they’ve done wrong. By now, they should be coming out with ‘this is what we’ll do to fix it’. Otherwise, they’re going to give you a couple of weeks before the election;” “They’re basically sterile, aren’t they. They’re trying to do a cleaner version of Reform. They’re more honest than the Tories trying to make it sterile and clean.”

However, there was no suggestion that the solution for the party was another change of leader: “Kemi herself, I think, is a strong woman. But the UK don’t have faith in the rest of the Conservative Party anymore;” “I’m keen to hear more. There’s a bit of sort of getting to grips with things. I feel like it’s too early to be hoofing her out.”

 “For me it’s about trying to keep afloat. They should be trying to make things more affordable.”

 Few had heard about the Conservative pledge to scrap the target of net zero by 2050, but there was some approval for the idea: “It’s more left-wing than the Labour policies in some respects, because it’s an appeal to the voters saying, ‘we’ll make your cost of living lower by doing this’. That’s what Labour should be doing.”

A few of our Labour voters were pleased that the government were pressing ahead with net zero (“It’s unpopular but they’re sticking to their guns and doing these green things, which I think is a good thing”). However, some found its environmental position confusing: “After years of saying no, it’s a third runway at Heathrow and new housing estates and changing the rules so you can build on green belt land. So you can’t say we’re going to be green and then do that as well, it doesn’t make sense;” “They say short term prices are going to go up, but what does that mean? Is there an accurate date of when prices are going to level off?”

There was a widespread view that net zero was a low priority at a time at a time of high living costs and a struggling economy: “They’ve basically transferred all our production of steel, cement, everything. Just shipped it all abroad so we can offset our carbon emissions to other countries, at the cost of all those jobs, just for next zero;” “For me it’s about trying to keep afloat right now. They should be trying to make things more affordable.”

 “She’s trying really hard. But she lives on a road that no-one goes down”

 Finally, with Halloween nearly upon us, what would Keir Starmer do if trick-or-treaters knocked on his door? “He’d try and negotiate some kind of compromise;” “He would take the sweets off them;” “It would be one in, one out;” “He’d give them a carrot. Or his business card.” What would he be dressed as? “A passport control officer;” “A toolmaker;” “A pumpkin, because there’s not really much in it. It’s a bit empty;” “Cousin Itt from the Addams Family;” “I can’t see him in anything other than his lawyer suit.”

How would Nigel Farage turn up? “He’d have a pint and a flat cap and a big union jack like Geri Halliwell;” “As Mr. Twit from Roald Dahl;” “Cosplaying as Trump;” “I think he’d go as himself because he quite likes the look of it. And I think he wants to be scary to a degree.” What would he give the kids at his door? “Beer.”

And Kemi Badenoch? “Chocolate bars with ‘Britain’ spelled wrong on them;” “She’d be on the posh estate where we always used to get a whole Snickers;” “She’d want to give them something British. A roast dinner;” “There’d be no decorations. The lights are off and there’s a sign on the door saying ‘do not knock;” “I feel like she’s probably trying really hard, and she’s got loads of stuff outside the house. But she lives on a road that no-one goes down.”