Labour’s shambolic performance in last night’s Caerphilly by-election has triggered an inevitable panic amongst the PLP. While ministers like Nick Thomas-Symonds have been putting on brave faces for the media today, behind closed doors the mood is less sanguine. Some MPs are blaming the “rudderless” leadership, and the scale of the defeat confirms their worst fears. This happening on the same day the Treasury briefs the Guardian about a potential manifesto-breaking rise in income tax hasn’t helped. MPs are bracing for things to get even worse come November…
There is some small comfort in Reform’s failure to win, and a hope that the ‘anyone but Farage’ strategy will ultimately help Labour at the next general election. That was certainly Starmer’s pitch at Labour conference. “The problem is we weren’t the ones who benefitted from people voting tactically [in Caerphilly]“, said a Labour source. It’s always a risky move…
All eyes are now on the Senedd elections in May. Polling guru John Curtice had some sobering words for Labour campaigners this morning:
“Labour’s share of the vote was just 11 per cent. It fell by 35 points. That’s the biggest drop that Labour have ever suffered in a by-election in Wales. Labour are in severe trouble in Wales.”
At this point, ‘severe trouble’ is putting it mildly…
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