Powell wants a megaphone, but if she amplifies mistakes it might be best not to interrupt her

The phrase “never interrupt the enemy while they are making a mistake” is credited to Napoleon.

He may have phrased it differently but it’s been honed over time and the meaning has not been lost on modern politicians though too often they fail to apply it.

The result of Labour’s deputy leadership contest, which became predictable a while ago, was less interesting for the 10k margin of Lucy Powell’s victory than it was for the derisory 16 per cent turn out.

Obviously, I had no vote, but I was rooting for Powell. It seemed the best Tory outcome.

It’s partly because I know her better but partly because this outcome makes Starmer’s already difficult position, harder.  Bridget Philipson, No 10’s favoured candidate failed to convince their movement that Powell would be ‘a divisive voice’ in the Party, but she had a point.

Powell has already had  the expected swipe at the man that sacked her, and within it there was a fundamental strategic mistake straight out of the blocks. I’m referring to Powell’s victory remarks this weekend where she said:

“It starts with us wrestling back the political megaphone and setting the agenda more strongly. Because let’s be honest, we’ve let Farage and his ilk run away with it. He wants to blame immigration for all the country’s problems. We reject that. Our diagnosis is different: that for too long, the country and the economy has worked in the interests of the few, not the many.”

First, let’s just accept Lucy Powell loose with a megaphone is not always a slam dunk for Labour and their ilk.

The Prime Minister, and the Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips spent last week under intense fire for the failings in setting up the Grooming Gang inquiry, an inquiry they never wanted. It was Powell, back in May, who raised her Any Questions megaphone to try drowning out what she implied was a bugling Tim Montgomerie.

In response to his raising the grooming gang scandal and a Channel 4 documentary featuring victims she cut in,

“Oh, we want to blow that little trumpet now do we” and “let’s get that dog whistle out shall we“.

Both tone and content were a tin-eared mistake. It led to accusations she was belittling the experience of victims. She apologised and ‘clarified her position’ but Labour’s overall position on this issue doesn’t seem to have improved at all.

However, let’s throw megaphones aside, that’s not the real mistake I’m highlighting today.

It’s her Reform attack where the issue lies.

There are two vital issues that any political party needs to tackle properly for any chance of winning in 2028/29: Immigration and the Economy. I stress ‘and’.

Powell’s implied ‘either or’ diagnosis, ended with her landing firmly on the economy as the Labour cure. Even if things were going well for them in that arena this ‘either or’ analysis is wrong. Also her implication is Reform make the same mistake but the other way around.

In truth it is both. Immigration and the Economy. Labour’s problem is its biggest failings are on both.

The Conservatives, who now understand the price of failure in either area, realise this policy equation goes hand in hand. As Kemi Badenoch put it to me, in her pre Conference ConservativeHome interview:

“The economy is the thing that’s going to make everybody’s lives better. You can’t fix your borders if you don’t have a strong economy. You can’t have a strong economy if you don’t fix your borders. We’ve got to work through those things in tandem”

There are occasions when Labour do a better job of hobbling the Prime Minister than their opponents do. In the removals of Haigh, Ali, Saddiq, Rayner, and Mandelson Labour sources, and MPs, were almost as helpful as the relentless probing from the Tories.

Powell has, intended or otherwise, the potential to force the Prime Minister to regularly reach for the paracetamol.

The Tories will carefully watch any attempt she makes to pull or more likely push Starmer further to his left, Reform will thank her for matching Starmer’s bad strategy of talking about them all the time.

Labour and Reform can continue to behave as if the Conservatives are already dead but it just gives the Tories more room to develop more policy, and the space to demonstrate they’re not just alive, but kicking.

Are people still angry with the party? Yes, don’t underestimate that – but out of the game and off the pitch, or even injured? No.

Of all policy areas the Conservatives have set out so far – and there is much more that still needs to come – the earliest and most detailed have been on the economy and immigration. It was, after all, the theme of this year’s Conference :“Stronger Economy. Stronger Borders”.

Badenoch’s pitch is still that, alongside her shadow cabinet, when they say something, they’ve thought it through, learned from some significant past mistakes, and not only laid out what they’ll do, but how they’ll do it, and how to pay for it.

Team built, experience led, diligent, detailed and thorough. That’s the pitch, whether you buy it or not. They don’t mention Reform but set themselves against those things they think Farage lacks – without using his name. Unlike Labour’s tendency to shout ‘Voldemort’ all the time the Tories have opted for “he who should not be named” – well, why give him the publicity?

Reform would have taken the limelight this weekend had they won in Caerphilly. But they didn’t. Still they ran Plaid Cymru hard, and came second, and Labour’s poor third in an area they’ve held for a century is where eyes were drawn and eyebrows raised.

After a sixteen month marathon of mishap it’s hard not to conclude bar some undeserved and improbable good luck Labour are in as much of a doom spiral as they’ve sent the economy. If only we, or indeed they, could look forward to Rachel Reeves second Budget to ‘turn things around’.

I’ve seen a number of ‘Reform have peaked’ arguments – mainly from those desperate to help Labour but trying to hide it.  However their numbers are still high, they are still confident of doing damage in the local elections in May, and Zia Yusuf tweets more often than he takes breath. Their mood and morale is understandable.

Perhaps that’s why the scrutiny Labour really should have had before the 2024 election is starting to materialise from some towards Reform, minus those who are trying to help them but don’t want to quite look like they are. We see you.

Reform know deep down the risk of carbon copying Labour’s ‘have no plan, but win by ‘not being Tories’ strategy. Such a shallow approach if repeated can expect significant incoming this time.

Reform policy is being quizzed already.

On those crucial areas of immigration and the economy, they’ve had slogans diagnosing the problem, but there’s still vagary and bluff on the how, and how much. On stopping boats we’re still netting fog on their ‘send in the Navy’ plan. Real scrutiny both of policy and delivery in local government is where any sheen will get peeled off. Those waiting for just ‘scandal’ to do it, are not in the right game.

Still, the Conservatives have nothing to be complacent about even if they seem more confident in themselves. With a mountain still to climb, they cannot afford any mistakes either.

One example: they cannot be deaf to the increasing voices, albeit noises-off, pointing out that if the country needs to live within its means can the Tories really stick with the pensions triple lock? Would that be a mistake?

Abolishing stamp duty to boost the housing market is a good bold step for appealing to the younger voter. Cheaper bills to power that home benefits everybody. Unpicking the unrealistic binds of net-zero, makes good sense and yet risks creating the impression you don’t think anthropogenic climate change is ‘real’? In the search for younger voters, those with values that might match but don’t yet see themselves as Conservatives, that’d be strategically unwise.

It’s often harder to spot your own ‘mistakes’ until it’s too late, and much harder than it is to spot your opponents’ mistakes and yet take advantage of that same lack of self-awareness.

The next weeks are going to be intense up to the Budget. There’ll be a laser focus on potential mistakes, missteps and mendacity. It’d be a brave Labour MP that’d risk playing the anthem of Blair’s ’97 victory now.

Things may be about to get a whole lot worse.