The Office for Budget Responsibility has failed to include tobacco duty in its inflation forecasts. In her last budget, Rachel Reeves whacked up cigarette duty by 2% and rolling tobacco by another 10%, sending the average pack soaring to £16.60 by January 2025. According to industry analysis, in July 2024 tobacco prices added 0.1% to the national inflation figure…
Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson confirmed in a parliamentary answer:
“The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for estimating the impact of Government policies on inflation. The OBR did not include an assessment on the contribution of tobacco excise duty to inflation in either the October 2024 or March 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.”
Meanwhile, Reeves is expected to hike tobacco duties again in the Winter Budget. No wonder the OBR’s forecasts get burned when they don’t include key drivers…
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