President Trump announced that Kazakhstan is joining the Abraham Accords, following his phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. While Iran and Hamas tried to derail the Accords by coordinating an attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, signatories UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have not backtracked from their agreements since, and other Muslim-majority countries are poised to normalize relations with Israel. Will other Central Asian countries follow Kazakhstan and join the Accords?
By leveraging existing favorable relations with Israel, Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan could strengthen relations in trade and military cooperation.
Several officials in the Trump administration believe that bringing in Central Asian countries into the Abraham Accords may result in easy but strategic wins: by leveraging existing favorable relations with Israel, Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan could strengthen relations in trade and military cooperation.
Additionally, expanding the Abraham Accords into Central Asia would further reduce Russia’s influence in its “Near Abroad,” as well as undermine Iran’s influence in the region. One way to do this is by like-minded countries working together to control the flow of oil and gas. (RELATED: The Kremlin Is Worried NATO Will Go After Putin’s Soft Underbelly)
Capitalizing on wins in the Abraham Accords with Kazakhstan and hopefully others could further future infrastructure like the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline and the Trans-Caspian Oil Transport System. These conduits would ship natural gas and oil from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, benefitting these countries, plus Israel and the West, and undermine (and completely bypass) Russia and Iran. Bringing Kazakhstan into the Abraham Accords will allow the U.S. to further leverage its “tens of billions” of dollars of investment, predominantly in oil and gas, in Kazakhstan. With the expansion of the Abraham Accords into Central Asia, Israel would also further secure oil imports from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. (RELATED: Trump Brokers 11th Peace Deal. More to Come?)
A Central Asian cohort in the Abraham Accords would further keep Iran in check militarily, as the Islamic Republic shares borders with both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Greater defense and intelligence cooperation between these countries and Israel and the United States in Iran’s neighborhood could cause Iran to think twice before it again decides to terrorize the region either directly or through its subcontractors, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
Israel and Kazakhstan, a 70 percent Muslim-majority nation, have a long history of friendly relations, and adding the country to the Abraham Accords will likely increase cooperation. The two countries established relations in 1992, with Israel opening its embassy in Almaty in 1992 and moving it to Astana in 2008, and Kazakhstan opening its embassy in Tel Aviv in 1996.
The two countries have hosted a significant number of diplomatic visits with each other. Israeli president Shimon Peres visited Kazakhstan several times, including in 2006 and 2009; Kazakh prime minister Sergey Terechshenko visited Israel in 1992. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the country in 2016, where he attended a business forum with the Kazakh prime minister and signed agreements on direct flights and visa-free travel between the countries. Kazakh defense officials visited Israel in 2014, 2016, and 2017. In 2020, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in cybersecurity.
Moving forward, President Trump should try to get Uzbekistan to join the Abraham Accords. Uzbekistan, a 90 percent Muslim majority country, also has friendly relations with Israel. The two countries have had diplomatic relations since 1992. In 1992, Israel opened its embassy in Tashkent, while in 1997, Uzbekistan opened its embassy in Tel Aviv. In 2018, the two countries established visa-free travel between them. In 2022, the Israeli embassy in Tashkent inaugurated a monument in the city commemorating Uzbekistan taking in 1.5 million refugees during World War II, which included several hundred thousand Jews who fled the Holocaust. This October, Uzbekistan sentenced a cleric to 2.5 years in prison for supporting a fatwa against Israel promoted by the Qatar-based International Union of Muslim Scholars.
And President Trump should also bring Azerbaijan, a 93 percent Muslim-majority nation, into the Abraham Accords. President Trump can leverage his current Armenia-Azerbaijan deal to do so. Israel also has friendly relations with Azerbaijan, which I detail here.
Trump’s announcement of Kazakhstan joining the Abraham Accords will help secure U.S. and Israeli interests in the Middle East. Hopefully, this development will be the key to unlocking Central Asia’s ascent to the Abraham Accords.
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