EXCLUSIVE: Trump, DeSantis Could Be Destined For Head-To-Head Rematch In Key GOP Primary

Florida stands to be the epicenter for another Republican civil war two and a half years after Gov. Ron DeSantis challenged President Donald Trump in his bid to retake the White House.

DeSantis will be leaving the governor’s mansion at the end of his second term next year, and Rep. Byron Donalds is the apparent frontrunner to replace him, having already received Trump’s endorsement. Donalds has one primary challenger: Paul Renner, the former speaker of the Florida House, who is polling at 2%.

Though Donalds seemingly has a tight grip on the race, all eyes are on Tallahassee. DeSantis has yet to reveal who he is backing to be his successor and rumors are flying that Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who was appointed to the vacant position by DeSantis in August, may enter the race with the support of the governor.

The Daily Caller spoke to sources who are involved in and close to the race for governor who were granted anonymity to discuss the inner workings of the race candidly. The sources said that although the race is calm now as Donalds barnstorms the state, they see a potential second DeSantis-Trump showdown bubbling under the surface.

Contributing to the feeling that tensions are on the verge of boiling over is that DeSantis has given the impression that he wants to name his own successor, multiple sources said, but has publicly expressed doubts about whether Donalds can be his guy.

One month after Donalds entered the race, the governor’s political operation even started urging state lobbyists to not back him, NBC News reported.

“I know DeSantis is still coming to grips with the idea that Byron can be the nominee, because I’m talking to donors, and DeSantis is just point-blank trashing him to donors …  just nasty stuff,” a source involved in Florida politics told the Caller. 

But some think that if DeSantis ultimately declines to endorse Donalds, it will be less for personal reasons and more attributable to the governor’s desire to be something of a maverick who charts his own path politically.

Donalds’ and DeSantis’s fraught relationship goes back to 2023 when the duo clashed over Florida’s African-American history standards in schools. Donalds went on to endorse Trump in the 2024 presidential race, a move he admitted “frayed” their relationship even further.

The feud intensified thanks to the circumstances under which Donalds became the de facto frontrunner in the governor’s race.

Trump endorsed Donalds for governor in February and urged him to run — five days later, Donalds obliged.

But at the time, it was presumed that DeSantis’ wife, Casey DeSantis, would run to succeed her husband. The Thursday before Donalds’ announcement, Florida’s first lady gave a long speech at a conservative conference filled with donors touting the successes of her husband’s administration and her own charity work. A source present said attendees were discussing how the appearance seemed aimed at testing the waters for a gubernatorial bid.

One week later, a source told the Caller that Ron and Casey were on a plane to the National Governors Association at the White House when Trump endorsed Donalds. That development led them to try and rally their base, even floating that Trump could potentially offer a dual endorsement.

A different Republican source with knowledge of both Trump and DeSantis world told the Caller that even after the Donalds endorsement, the governor and his wife were telling donors they were meeting with Trump, playing golf with him and were going to get his support, emphasizing that the president has a history of dual endorsements. 

“Everyone I know that’ calling for them is like, what am I calling for?” the source added.

But before DeSantis and his wife could rally the troops, Casey’s potential run for governor fizzled.

In April 2025, The Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times reported that her Hope Florida Foundation, a charity arm of her Hope Florida program, took a donation given in a state settlement agreement and put it towards a political PAC. The transaction is subject to a grand jury investigation into state funds being used for political purposes. Notably, Collins has been a vocal defender of Hope Florida during the scandal.

As the situation snowballed, talk of a Casey run dwindled and Donalds cemented his lead.

The governor’s office did not respond to the Daily Caller’s request for comment.

Over the last few months, sources said that some have grown frustrated with the governor and his inability to collaborate with other officials, creating a desire to turn the page.

“Byron has been very quietly raising a lot of things, working his ass off,” a source involved in Florida politics told the Caller. “The strategy that he’s playing is he is hitting every single Lincoln Day dinner in the state, and he is just locking down that Republican base, and his visibility, I mean, he’s on Fox News at least once a week.”

The source with knowledge of both Trump and DeSantis worlds told the Caller that the president has made it very clear he is with Donalds, pointing to his trip to Florida to tour Alligator Alcatraz with Donalds. (RELATED: DeSantis Doubles Down On Alligator Alcatraz With New Migrant Detention Center)

If there will be a challenge from the DeSantis camp to Donalds, insiders now believe it will come from Collins.

Many believed Collins would announce his bid for governor on Oct. 1. However, insider Republican sources told the Caller that timeline was thrown into flux due to uncertainty over whether DeSantis would endorse.

“Jay Collins was picked by DeSantis to serve as lieutenant governor with the expectation that he would run for governor with the DeSantis endorsement, however, with a poor fundraising cycle, the DeSantis endorsement seems to be in limbo and therefore Collins has pushed off entering the race for over a month,” one Republican source with knowledge of both the Trump and DeSantis camps told the Caller. 

Sources close to Collins pushed back on the notion that the DeSantis endorsement was in jeopardy and delaying the announcement.

They pointed out the governor has been hosting joint tele town-halls with the lieutenant governor to highlight his leadership and introduce him to potential voters.

Jessica Caruso Wright, a political operative with The Wright Strategies who is handling communications for Collins, told the Caller that Collins is in the final stages of considering a run, and remains committed to his current role in the meantime.

“Since President Trump took office, Florida has been his strongest partner in enforcing immigration laws — a cornerstone promise to the American people,” Wright told the Caller.

“Should Lieutenant Governor Collins enter the race and ultimately become Florida’s next Governor, he will ensure our state continues to advance President Trump’s vision for a stronger, safer America,” she added.

One veteran Republican operator in Florida told the Caller that Collins’ delayed launch is creating an uphill battle for a potential campaign.

“I think it becomes harder the longer [he waits] … you’re running into this weird window of you announcing now, you have less than a month before you basically can’t fundraise for a couple weeks for Thanksgiving. You lose December anyway,” the source told the Caller. “It puts you in a bad spot.”

But Collins’ come-from-behind positioning puts him in good company with the current governor. DeSantis entered his first race late and as an underdog, who was lifted over the finish line by a Trump endorsement.

Many sources have already counted Renner out of the race, they told the Caller, leaving Collins as the best and most likely challenger to Donalds. An October St. Pete’s Poll surveyed 1,034 likely Florida Republican primary election voters. The survey found that 39% would support Donalds, 3.7% would support Collins and 2.7% would support Renner.

“I’ve been around the state. I don’t see a clear path, even with support from the governor, because it’s just Byron’s been there and been working it for so long now,” the Florida Republican operative told the Caller.

There is one other surprise challenger who could mix up the race. James Fishback, an investor who launched a PAC to counter Elon Musk’s third party threat, said he will also enter the race in a statement on Tuesday.

“The Florida Governor’s race is wide open because Congressman Donalds, whom I respect, has not yet released a specific plan to make Florida affordable or build on Governor DeSantis’ historic record despite being in the race for 8 months,” Fishback told the Caller, adding that the University of Florida has invited both him and Donalds to debate.

To prepare for a potential launch, a source close to Fishback told the Caller that he met with Collins last week in Tampa, and had dinner with the Donalds in August in Naples.

Another top Republican Florida operative told the Caller that Donalds has raised about $30 million, which will play to his advantage the longer it takes his opponents to get in the race.

The source added that they didn’t think whether DeSantis endorsed a Donalds challenger or refused to endorse Donalds at all would matter much to the congressman’s campaign. A Trump endorsement matters more and ultimately, DeSantis isn’t on the ticket, the source said. 

According to that same St. Pete’s poll, if the Republican primary election for governor of Florida were held at the time of the survey and the candidates were Byron Donalds, endorsed by Donald Trump, or Jay Collins, endorsed by Ron DeSantis, 52.1% would vote for the Florida congressman and 11.5% would vote for the Lt. Gov. 36.4% were undecided.

“It’s basically the presidential 2024 campaign all over again. We all know the adaptable outcome. You just need to go through the motions,” another top Republican strategist in Florida told the Caller. 

One Republican source noted that Trump and DeSantis’ relationship has recovered somewhat since their tense presidential showdown, but that opposing Donalds would tarnish the goodwill built up since early 2024.

“The current relationship between Trump and DeSantis is a good one, but the president would certainly like DeSantis to support or at least not oppose Byron Donalds,” one Republican source with knowledge inside both camps told the Caller.

The source suggested that DeSantis ought to cut a deal with Trump: agree to back Donalds in exchange for something else.

“If the governor is going to cut a deal his window to do so is closing because Donalds has such a fundraising lead and momentum that the president may no longer need DeSantis. Every day that goes by, DeSantis loses less leverage to cut a deal,” the source added. 

Outside of Florida, it appears the GOP is content to let the primary race sort itself out. There won’t be much party energy spent on what is now a safely red state, and no one wants to get in the middle of another DeSantis-Trump feud.

A campaign official told the Caller that in terms of party efforts, Republicans are largely focused on House and Senate races. The source added, however, that it would be a waste of time and money for someone to run against Donalds in the primary. 

“Florida is no longer a swing state — it’s a Republican stronghold. Thanks to President Trump and Republicans in the state, Florida has flourished with record job growth, lower taxes, and freedom that is drawing families from all over the country,” Kiersten Pels, the press secretary for the Republican National Committee, told the Caller.

So will things get messy if someone runs against Trump’s handpicked candidate? Would a DeSantis endorsement against Trump’s candidate be grounds for another Republican civil war?

To at least one insider, Trump’s team doesn’t care.

“Do I think Ron DeSantis will ever endorse Byron? No. Does it matter? No. Because President Donald Trump endorsed Byron,” they said.