Jamaica is facing its sharpest quarterly economic contraction in years as Hurricane Melissa’s fallout hammers critical industries, but officials are forecasting a rebound to growth in 2026’s last quarter.
It was announced Tuesday by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) that the economy is projected to shrink by 11–13% in the quarter of Oct.–Dec. 2025, while the entire 2025/2026 fiscal year is forecasted to contract between 3-6%. (RELATED: Six Dead Amid Leptospirosis Outbreak In Jamaica After Record-Setting Hurricane Melissa)
At the PIOJ’s hybrid quarterly press briefing, Director General Dr. Wayne Henry stated that Jamaica’s economy was on a path to solid increase before the Category 5 hurricane struck.
“Growth of 3.1% was estimated for the first half of the current fiscal year and this was expected to continue throughout the second half,” said Henry, per Caribbean National Weekly.
The Planning Institute of Jamaica expects the Jamaican economy to contract by 11 to 13 per cent in the December 2025 quarter, the sharpest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Read more: https://t.co/7V4SCFUYY3 pic.twitter.com/9es1rhSEVF
— Jamaica Gleaner (@JamaicaGleaner) November 25, 2025
However, the passage of Hurricane Melissa derailed that track, exerting severe pressure across virtually every economical sector. The Category 5 storm inflicted widespread damage to homes, power grids, roads, water infrastructure and productive assets.
Agriculture was among the most heavily impacted sectors. Dr. Henry noted that the seven hardest-hit parishes represent 74% of the land that’s utilized for domestic crop production, and a substantial portion of livestock and export crop farming. Losses encompass access roads, farmland, livestock and fishing gear.
Dr. Henry cautioned that Oct.–Dec. 2025 could mark Jamaica’s worst economic performance in a quarter since the devastating Apr.–June 2020 COVID-19 slump. Nevertheless, he expressed measured positivity when it comes to the nation’s recovery, stating, “The economy is expected to return to growth in the Oct.–Dec. 2026 quarter,” as efforts to repair and reconstruct accelerate, per Caribbean National Weekly.
