John Redwood: Britain would be foolish to ignore Trump’s warnings to America’s allies

Sir John Redwood is a former MP for Wokingham and a former Secretary of State for Wales.

Donald Trump’s stark statement of US foreign policy aims and attitudes towards allies and others has come as a shock to the European diplomatic establishment who expect allies and friends to conceal or dress up their inner aims in warmer or misleading language.

This new document, a strong statement of home truths as the US sees them, is a message to the EU to change course. It is very critical of economic and regulatory policies that have delivered slow growth. It attacks trade policies that rig the playing field against a country like the US with tariffs, subsidies and rules that disadvantage the partner. It highlights a defence policy which fails to provide sufficient military capability, preferring to rely on the US. The carbon border mechanism new tariff the EU is about to introduce is unlikely to go down well in Washington.

The President sees mass migration undermining Western societies by changing their cultural and religious balance. He criticises weak EU member states governments that suppress freedoms and political opposition. He dismisses the EU as a supranational body damaging national sovereignty and encouraging the erosion of national identities and traditions. He exempts the UK in this document as he sees Brexit as an opportunity for the UK to reassert its culture and freedoms.

However, he remains critical of the UK government’s lack of control over borders, the limits placed on free speech and the continuing high levels of inbound migration.

Trump wishes to be a force for world peace, based on strength. He warns the EU that they need to settle with Russia over Ukraine.

The EU has vital interests at stake, as it wishes Ukraine to become a full member of the EU and wishes to have substantial influence over Ukrainian government. This puts it at odds with Russia. At the same, however,  time the EU expects Ukraine to fight the war on her own, whilst many EU member states are unwilling or unable to offer sufficient military and financial support to Ukraine to give them more of an advantage in battle.

The President tells the EU to lower expectations of the peace terms. To prove him wrong, the EU is going to have to give a lot more immediate direct assistance to Ukraine to help them reverse some of the territorial gains Russia has so far made before agreeing a peace.

Trump has made clear he does not want further NATO expansion, reassuring Russia that Ukraine would not become another member. He speculates that if some European countries become less committed to western values and culture he would not want them to continue in NATO. He repeats his insistence that all NATO members should spend five per cent of their GDP on defence. He also wishes Europe to take care of its own defence, ceasing reliance on US force; that will indeed require a major and sustained increase in spending which is not currently planned in European country budgets (with a few exceptions near the Russian border).

He wishes to cease “nation building”, wanting to get on with the autocracies of the world without intruding into their internal affairs. This brings US policy into line with Chinese and Russian stated views. He sees US and western wars to create regime change as wasteful of lives and money with poor results. (Afghanistan is the obvious example of this.)

In the Middle East he thinks the threat of Iran is being contained. Now the US has a surplus of oil, he is less concerned about Middle Eastern politics. He wishes to build on his diplomatic success with Saudi and other Gulf states, investing and trading more with them. If they evolve into more democratic and freedom loving societies that is a good thing, but he does not intend to lecture them.

The same is true of Africa. Trump thinks the best that can be done is to partner with selected states and show how that helps them prosper with more trade and investment. He wishes to cut the aid paid as grants and rely more on trade to boost growth and encourage governmental change.

In Asia, he sets out why he sees the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea as a crucial trade route and area which must be kept open, and explains that US power is available to back up the US view that the current status quo over the government of Taiwan should not change. He urges Japan and Korea as key partners in the region to step up their defence spending to help the US maintain the freedom of the seas.

How should the UK respond to this underlining of the US approach? There is nothing in the document that should come as a surprise to observers of the presidency. It should encourage Britain to believe in itself, to see and seize the opportunities of Brexit more clearly, and lead the Government to make faster and better provision for a stronger military to take care of our own defence. We need an enhanced shield against incoming drones, missiles and aircraft, stronger defences against interference in our waters, and more attention to cyber warfare and drone technology.

It should also persuade ministers to take more urgent and effective action to cut illegal migration. We also need to examine drug dependency and drug trades into the UK as we too like the US have too many people with a serious drug dependency.

It is difficult to know how to handle the breakdown in relations between the EU and the US. The UK agreeing to provide practical military support to help police a Ukraine settlement is currently not relevant, as there is no peace to police and Russia is against European states putting military personnel onto Ukraine soil. The Government is right to rule out committing British forces to fight Russia on the side of Ukraine – but this decision means we should not try to change Ukrainian views over the peace or its commitment to the war, as they are the ones that have to bear the pain and the losses.

The Government is right too not to rush to reply in detail to this extraordinary statement. When an ally speaks out like this it is best to do what we think is right and to let our actions speak rather than any critical words. The message that we need to take more care of ourselves is one we should not ignore.