Newslinks for Friday 12th December 2025

Britain’s economy shrinks, with ‘risk of recession’

“Growth in the UK economy unexpectedly contracted for the second consecutive month in the run-up to the budget in October. Output in the economy fell by 0.1 per cent in October after a similar contraction of 0.1 per cent in September, the Office for National Statistics said. The fall in the monthly growth rate was not expected by economists, who forecast a modest rebound of 0.1 per cent expansion at the start of the fourth quarter. Activity failed to rebound in October after growth was hit by the shutdown of production at Jaguar Land Rover after a cyberattack for most of September. When measured on a rolling three-month measure, output fell by 0.1 per cent, the ONS said. Construction was the worst-performing part of the economy in October, with activity falling by 0.6 per cent. The UK’s services sector, which is the main driver of the economy, also contracted by 0.3 per cent. Production, which includes manufacturing, rose by 1.1 per cent after the JLR shutdown ended. The economy has lost steam in the second half of the year amid worries about policy changes at the late November budget, a slowing jobs market, and annual inflation rates in excess of 3.5 per cent.” – The Times

• Rachel Reeves nightmare as UK economy shrinks in new humiliation for Labour – Daily Express
• Britain ‘at risk of recession’ as economy shrinks – Daily Telegraph
• UK Economy Shrank Again in October Ahead of Budget Tax Hikes – Bloomberg
• Reeves’s tax raid is driving up unemployment, warns CBI – Daily Telegraph
• MPs pension scheme makes ‘mockery’ of Reeves investment push – Financial Times

Comment:

• I know Rachel Reeves – she coveted this job and must accept her Budget failings – Meg Hillier, The i
• Britain cannot afford the £350 billion price tag of Ed Miliband’s rush to Net Zero – Claire Coutinho, Daily Telegraph
• How Rachel Reeves shrank the economy – Michael Simmons, The Spectator

> Yesterday:

Britain’s on a war footing, according to armed forces minister – and ‘must not rely on US for defence

“Britain must stop relying on the United States for defence, the Armed Forces minister has said. In an interview with The Telegraph, Al Carns said Britain had been dependent on US security guarantees “for the last 60 years”. But, warning that Donald Trump’s White House may pivot away from Europe to focus on other threats, Mr Carns said Nato countries must spend more on defence to “increase our lethality”. His comment came as Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary-general, issued a stark warning on Thursday, saying Vladimir Putin had chosen the alliance as his “next target” and the West must be prepared for a war on a scale not seen since the days of “our grandparents and great-grandparents”. Earlier this week, Mr Trump, the US president, condemned European leaders as “weak” for failing to end the war in Ukraine, and the new US national security strategy claimed Europe faced “civilisational erasure” if it did not cut migration. Mr Carns told The Telegraph he disagreed “wholeheartedly” with the US warning on migration but said it was a “clear message” that Europe needed to “collectively acknowledge and own a large proportion of its own security”. “ – Daily Telegraph

• ‘Europe must prepare’: Minister warns Britain is on a war footing as Nato chief says conflict with Russia ‘at our door’ – Daily Mail
• Nato chief warns Europe to prepare for war against Russia – The Independent
• Can European leaders secure a Ukraine peace deal by Christmas? – The Times
• The decorated marine tipped to be Labour’s next leader – Daily Telegraph

Comment:

• Trump’s bleak vision shows how good we had it – Gerard Baker, The Times
• Ukraine over by Christmas? Only if a few people pull their heads out and look around – Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, Daily Telegraph

> Today:

NHS strikes and superflu perfect nightmare

“Doctors’ strikes could cause the NHS to collapse over Christmas as a “tidal wave of flu tears through our hospitals”, Wes Streeting has warned. The health service said it was facing a “worst-case scenario” this month due to an “unprecedented wave of superflu” that threatens to overwhelm hospitals at the same time as the strike. The number of people admitted to hospital with flu rose by 55 per cent last week to an average of 2,660 each day, the highest on record for this time of year. Writing for The Times, Streeting, the health secretary, said the number of people in hospital could “triple by the peak of the pressures” and that it will be the most challenging winter for the NHS since the pandemic. Flu cases are climbing sharply before a planned five-day strike by resident doctors, formerly known as junior doctors, which will start on Wednesday. Some hospitals have reinstated Covid-era mask mandates for staff, patients and visitors to help control the spread of flu.” – The Times

• NHS bracing for worst ever winter crisis in next fortnight amid rising flu cases – The Guardian
• NHS facing Christmas collapse over ‘tidal wave’ of flu and doctors’ strike, Wes Streeting warns – LBC News
• Now six hospitals declare ‘critical incidents’ as ‘superflu’ sparks NHS meltdown: Health chiefs order patients to wear masks – and beg doctors to postpone ‘reckless’ strikes NEXT WEEK that could cause Christmas carnage – Daily Mail
• Patients treated in CUPBOARDS in NHS ‘superflu’ chaos as docs warn ‘last chance’ to get vaccine before H3N2 peak – The Sun

Comment:

• Christmas strikes could be the Jenga piece that collapses the tower – Wes Streeting, The Times
• Beat the BMA and Streeting is one step closer to No 10 – Isabel Hardman, The i

> Yesterday:

News in brief:

• The NHS is failing mothers – Phoebe Arslanagic-Little, The Critic
• Stopping the boats will be harder than Jordan Bardella thinks – Gavin Mortimer, The Spectator
• Gangs are menacing London’s schoolchildren – Max Daly, UnHerd
• To solve our water crisis, we need to think like Victorians – Lawrence Newport, CapX