Michael Fabricant: I wasn’t a fan, but ditching our leader would weaken the Conservative long game

Sir Michael Fabricant was MP for Lichfield for 32 years.

When I was asked on a BBC radio programme 6 months ago what I thought of Kemi Badenoch, I replied “Well, I am not in love with her”.  Confronted with that clip a week later, Kemi responded.  I won’t repeat what she replied.  It wasn’t nice, but I don’t blame her.  She was taken by surprise.

I didn’t support her in the leadership election and I had a strong view about her from my experience in Parliament and of those who worked with her.

On leaving Parliament following the general election, my view of her was reinforced.  She took time to develop policy which left a vacuum which Reform filled.  Old hands in Parliament would have advised her that in Opposition you have time to develop policy and build a consensus within the Parliamentary Party.  That was fine and dandy when it was just the Tories v. Labour, but hopeless when another right-wing party is snapping at your heels.  Neither she nor her advisers could see that.  And her performance in the Chamber, especially at PMQs, was underwhelming.

And yet, and yet.

Kemi realises she no longer has time on her hands – if she ever did – and has stepped up her game considerably.

She is making mincemeat of Keir Starmer – heaven knows there’s enough material to work on – taking full advantage of the six questions each week with a renewed confidence.  And this feeds into a growingly effective social media campaign which is now outperforming Labour and Reform in terms of penetration.

There is a slight trickle into public opinion with most pollsters saying the Conservatives have picked up one or two points in the last month. But the trickle is showing no signs of becoming a torrent. We are still way behind Reform.  Too many blame the Conservatives for the last few years and not taking full advantage of Brexit due to, what I call, the Lib-Dem wing of the Conservative Parliamentary Party which blocked any move to ‘Get Brexit Done’.  And consecutive dumping of leaders is always a no-no with the electorate and rightly so.

So while Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are the most unpopular PM and Chancellor since records began, it is not helping the Conservatives yet.  According to YouGov, 72 per cent of the electorate now disapprove of the PM with only 12 per cent approving of him.

That is hopeless, but Labour votes are mainly going to the Greens and Lib-Dems while the disaffected are going to Reform.  Electoral Calculus have a good analysis on this.  The view seems to be ‘Reform may mess things up, but they can’t be any worse than the Tories or Labour so let’s give them a chance’.

This position has become so entrenched, I don’t think that any other potential leader of the Conservative Party would make any difference.  The underlying history remains.

Come the May elections, assuming Starmer doesn’t postpone these too, if current polling is accurate and doesn’t change, both the Labour Party and the Conservatives are in for a thrashing.

Talk of regicide is already awash in the Labour Party.  If Labour are decimated in May, Starmer and Reeves will be gone – if not sooner.

There are bound to be similar voices in the Conservative Party following the local elections.

However, unlike my view of 6 months ago, we should not do the same.

Any talk of deposing Kemi after the May elections will weaken, not strengthen, us.  Getting rid of Kemi – and we are ‘the same old Tories’. Again.

Let Labour be the shambles party – not us.  And while turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, we won’t be having a general election anytime soon.  Time for Labour to cock up further and Reform to falter as they have done in Staffordshire.  Maybe.

I am not normally a ‘Steady the Buffs’ sort of guy.  But the logic is now clear.  If Kemi maintains her momentum, there is nothing to be gained politically from another Tory regicide.

We must play the long game.