Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus group – Tory voters have their say on recent defections

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

Following the recent spate of defections, I convened two focus groups of 2024 Conservative voters in Watford to hear what they made of it all. What does it say about the defectors, and the party they left behind? How did Kemi Badenoch handle it? And are they tempted to follow Messrs Jenrick, Zahawi and Rosindell to their new home?

Few said they had voted Conservative in 2024 with any enthusiasm: “It was only because I felt like they were the best of a bad bunch;” “I didn’t want Labour getting in. But it’s not as if the Conservatives did an amazing job in the last few years. It’s been a complete shambles.”

“She’s reinvigorating the party. But what goes behind that?”

Most in the groups had a positive view of Kemi Badenoch: “I quite like her. She’s got balls;” “I feel that it needed fresh blood, and she has injected that;” “She’s quite quiet, but she’s articulate. I do like what she says;” “She’s a powerhouse.” However, there was a widespread feeling that she was fighting a lonely battle and needed more support: “She’s holding him to account and she’s really coming into herself. But that doesn’t mean she’s a brilliant party;” “She’s trying to make herself known, but whether she can do it on her own is questionable. I think she needs more backing from her party;” “The way she’s handling PMQs at the moment is excellent. I think that’s reinvigorating the party. But what goes behind that? That’s the thing.”

Overall, these 2024 Tories thought the party was still some way from recovery:

“There’s no stability within the group. And they haven’t really regrouped to bring anything that makes people sit up and listen;” “They might be moving in the right direction, but the pace is too slow;” “The problem for 14 years was complacency, and then they got smacked around the face. And then they were in shock;” “It’s going to take a lot of healing, a lot of time. I don’t think it’s going to be four years.”

“They’re not thinking about us, they’re thinking about them”

All the participants had picked up on the defections (though many couldn’t remember the names of the individuals concerned). They tended to think that the switchers, including Jenrick, had been motivated by career ambition, resentment or self-preservation rather than noble principle: “It seems like it’s their jobs they’re worried about. They’re not thinking about us, they’re thinking about them;” “I just think he’s really bitter;” “He left because he didn’t get what he wanted, to be prime minister. It was all about themselves. I think have a complete clear-out and start all over again;” “He’s left it 18 months to jump ship. If he felt that bad about it, he should have done it last August;” “I think it’s greed. He probably thought he was going to lose his seat at the next election and now he’s got more chance, so it’s more for personal gain. That’s the impression I get, anyway.” Some argued that this was perfectly understandable and there was no shame in it: “I think what people are missing is that at the end of the day, it’s his career. If you work for a company that’s going downhill and there’s another one that’s going up and is very successful, you’re going to jump ship. It’s the same principle. Whether it’s politics or whatever, it’s the same thing.”

“It was a great move. ‘Don’t mess with me’”

The groups were generally impressed Badenoch’s handling of the situation, including her video statement announcing Jenrick’s removal: “She discovered what he was going to do and got rid of him. It was a great move. ‘Don’t mess with me’;” “She’s spring cleaning”

“I think she was decisive and she did it quickly.” A few felt that the episode could potentially accelerate the kind of change the Conservatives needed to embrace: “It could be good for the Tories because they’re getting rid of some of the dead wood, and they can bring in new people. And if they don’t necessarily win the next election, they’ve got a base for the time after”

Even so, many of the participants thought that however impressive the leader’s actions and whatever the defectors’ motives, the events had damaged the Conservatives. “It’s because of self-preservation, but also because they don’t believe in the Conservative party. If they believed in it, maybe they’d stick around;” “When people leave, it does ring alarm bells. Why are they running all of a sudden? What’s changed? What’s going on?” “There’s no loyalty anymore. It used to be quite a loyal party, but now they’re all a little bit like, ‘what about me?’”

“Nobody knows how to sort the problems out. They’re just getting bigger”

Despite what they said about his reasons for leaving, many in the groups agreed with Jenrick about the state of Britain and the Conservative government’s role in bringing it about, as outlined in his press conference with Nigel Farage on the day he joined Reform UK. Few were optimistic that things would improve in the short term: “It’s never irreparable. It can always be fixed, but it’s going to take ages and ages;” “Nobody knows how to sort the problems out. They’re just getting bigger.”

Most of these 2024 Tories were sceptical about Reform, and especially about it Farage: “He’s a loose cannon. He likes causing chaos;” “I think they’ve got good values for the country but I don’t trust him;” “He’s extreme;” “A bomb that’s about to explode;” “I was born in the UK, I have a British passport, I’ve worked my whole life. If he comes in, is he going to look at your colour and go ‘no, you’re out’?” “Some of the policies they come out with I think are bang on the mark. Others, I think ‘you have no idea what’s going on in society to make such outlandish statements’.”

“The Conservatives have been in government, but with Reform it’s just pot luck”

Some of these voters’ reactions to Jenrick’s claim that his former party had no stomach for the radical change the country needed provided a good illustration of the difference between Reform’s brand of populism and the more cautious conservative approach: “We don’t like change. I do think change is needed, but we need to take baby steps when it comes to the level of change this country needs. I don’t think Labour is doing the right job, but whether Reform would, I don’t know;” “I like the idea of reforming the government, but when his manifesto came out they picked holes in his budget and stuff. I’d love him to be the knight in shining armour, but does he have the armour to do it?” “The Conservatives have been in government, but with Reform it’s just pot luck. It’s just guesswork.”

Some thought the idea of an alliance between Reform and the Conservatives had some kind of logical appeal in theory (though several in these Tory groups said they would not vote for anything associated with Farage): “I think in an ideal scenario you’d have the backup of the Tories having experience, with the ideas Reform are bringing in;” “If they were in with the Tories, the Tories would be able to calm them down a bit. If you got a happy medium it would be a dream team.” In practice, however, most thought the idea was both unlikely and undesirable: “They hated each other. And now all of a sudden they’re in bed together;” “I would still expect the Conservatives to be leading that party and Farage being in the back. But he doesn’t do the back seat.”

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