There’s two ways to view the constant stream of Tory defections to Reform that have shaken the first month of politics in 2026. Some said it would be a quiet start to the year…
If you take the Tory HQ view, all of this is – in Badenoch’s words – “spring cleaning”. The sharp tactical execution of the Jenrick defection – heading him off and surely lessening its impact – has spiked the guns of her harshest critics. After all – this train of thought goes – the Tories are better off without these traitorous defectors in the first place. And that is the conventional way of thinking about it. With them out of the party, Kemi, it is said, stands a better chance at reinvention and making more progress…
There’s another way of looking at it: that the defectors from the right of the Tory party this year are not “swivel-eyed loons”, but some of its most high-impact operators. Indeed, Jenrick was the most active and popular frontbencher. Braverman was the most popular backbencher. Zahawi is well connected and a good organiser. These are big beasts, not councillors – though many hundreds of hard working Tory councillors are in fact defecting to Reform constantly…
There are a number of factors that will decide between these paths. The first is the performance at the local elections – if Reform undershoot, the Tory arguments will be bolstered. The second is the success of activist centrist groups who are openly trying take control of the Tory party and move it deliberately to the centre – a sort of internal coup which the leadership has criticised – but also underestimated. The third is random events. Nigel has set a deadline for defectors in the Commons of May 7th…
For now, the remaining right-wingers in the parliamentary party are being watched carefully (some of the biggest fish, like Rees-Mogg, are not MPs). Hayes, McVey, Morrissey, Rankin – you could list the names, but they all say they are not moving. That’s what all the other defectors said…
