John Wall: The lessons of history for governments in trouble

John Wall is a retired engineer and former Conservative county councillor in Hampshire.

According to Churchill: “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Although Marx’s, “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce,” might be more appropriate!

Consider the duration of governments we’ve had.

1945-1951: 6 (5+1) years Labour

1951-1964: 13 (4+4+5) years Conservative

1964-1979: 15 years Labour (2+4) + Conservative (4) + Labour (5)

1979-1997: 18 (4+4+5+5) years Conservative (13+5)

1997-2010: 13 (4+4+5) years Labour

2010-2024: 14 (5+2+2+5) years Conservative (including coalition with the LDs)

With a few exceptions this is essentially a series of three-term governments (2010-24 had two short terms), and these ended for multiple reasons.

“Events, dear boy, events!”

Shocks to the system, sometimes self-inflicted, can change the course of history.

The 1956 Suez Crisis finished Eden and he resigned citing ill-health. Wilson was expected to win in 1970 but, amongst other things, had a legacy from the 1967 devaluation and his poorly judged “pound in your pocket” speech.

The exception is the 1982 Falklands War. Failure would have probably finished Thatcher, but it’s one of her greatest legacies.

In 1992 Major was barely back in Downing Street when Black Wednesday, an inherited ticking time bomb, holed his government below the waterline. The 2008 Financial Crisis happened on Brown’s watch and the Conservatives successfully blamed him.

In early 2020 Johnson had the largest Conservative majority since the 1980s, Labour was undergoing a leadership contest and needed de-Corbynising, and then Covid struck. Without this there wouldn’t have been Partygate. The messy and introverted 2022 Johnson-Truss-Sunak succession bequeathed Sunak a poisoned chalice.

“Something will turn up” but things can only get worse

The final term tends to be five years as PMs become Mr Micawber. Attlee’s 1950 majority of five meant he went in 1951. 1959-64 isn’t a great example as Macmillan was replaced by Douglas-Home in 1963 due to ill health. Callaghan hung on, some suggest he might have won in Autumn 1978, until losing a vote of confidence, and an election, in 1979.

The real exception is Major in 1992 who had a year and a half to steady things, make a start on replacing the Community Charge and get on his soapbox.

After becoming Labour leader Blair increasingly set the agenda and Major forcing a leadership contest in 1995 made no difference. Had he then called an election and Sunak similarly after succeeding Truss they would have almost certainly lost, but probably by smaller margins.

Brown should have probably emulated Eden and called an election on succeeding Blair in 2007. He didn’t know the Financial Crisis was coming but a victory may have finished the relatively new Cameron and caused another Conservative leadership contest. He hung on and lost in 2010.

Sunak went slightly earlier than necessary in 2024 but was still wiped out.

“Changing the guard”

Can a new Captain steer the ship of state away from the rocks or is it rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic?

In 1957 Macmillan’s survival was uncertain, but Labour was associated with union militancy and divided between the Gaitskellites and Bevanites. He secured a majority of 100 in 1959. Douglas-Home replaced Macmillan in 1963 and lost by only four seats in 1964. He possibly did better than Macmillan, damaged by scandals like Profumo and increasingly considered out of touch, might have managed.

Major replaced Thatcher in 1990 and unexpectedly won in 1992. The Conservatives received just 8.8 percent of the vote in the May 2019 European elections, Johnson succeeded May and less than six months later secured a majority of eighty.

Johnson resigned on 7 July but Truss wasn’t installed until 5 September 2022. She resigned on 20 October and Sunak was installed on 25 October, Sunak directly following Johnson may have been more successful.

In a quieter 2019 the Conservatives took two months to replace May in 2022 we were coming out of Covid and inflation was rising, they fiddled while Britain burned.

Not every change of PM is because their administration is in trouble as Eden (1955, won in 1955), Callaghan (1976, hung on and lost in 1979), Brown (2007, hit by the financial crisis and lost in 2010), and May (2016, won in 2017) show.

“The lessons of history”

In a volatile world three terms (12 to 15 years) looks like the limit, and it’s unlikely anyone will equal Thatcher or Blair.

• A significant “event” will probably finish a PM.
• Mr Micawber rarely delivers. When a government is turned off the longer it hangs on the worse the defeat will probably be.
•  Changing an unpopular PM has some chance of success, if done quickly and with the right result.

Starmer’s government is extremely unpopular suggesting a 2029 election. We shall have to see how the Iran War or May elections plays for him. Replacing him could be worthwhile, but if his successor hangs on until 2029 they’ll have to achieve something only Attlee, just, and Major managed.

A new PM might provide political acumen but Labour want to throw money at the public sector like Blair, who inherited growth, and now the pips are squeaking. They’re spending £820m to provide work for 18-21 year olds, many made unemployable by their policies!

The priorities should be promoting private sector wealth creation to fund the public sector, controlling spending and stopping the small boats, but would their party support it?

There is still much speculation about Starmer’s future but it’s unlikely Mr Micawber will retire.