The Illusion of Victory: Trump, Iran, and the Limits of Military Power | The American Spectator

As we enter week six of the Iran war, we know a little more than when President Trump took us to war in the Middle East.

Mr. Trump’s rather desultory speech on Wednesday night lasted only 20 minutes, which is rather short for him. He jumped around from criticizing former president Obama (who gave Iran about $1.7 billion in cash) to the fact that we are energy independent. He bounced from the ayatollahs’ regime, which he said killed 45,000 of its own citizens, to a conclusion of the war, which he said could come in two or three weeks, apparently even if there is no cease-fire or peace deal.

He also told our NATO “allies” — who have refused to become involved — that if they want to open the Strait of Hormuz, through which a lot of Europe’s oil flows, they should do it themselves. Meanwhile, France, Italy  Spain, and Austria have informed us that we cannot use their airspace for operations against Iran.

Mr. Trump is grievously unhappy with NATO. He has previously called the NATO nations “cowards” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that without the U.S., there would be no NATO which is obviously true. Mr. Rubio has hinted that the U.S. may withdraw its thousands of troops from the NATO nations, which would make Russian President Putin ecstatic.

In the most important part of Mr. Trump’s speech he said that he wasn’t aiming for regime change but that it has already occurred, and that the “new group” is “more reasonable and less radical” than the earlier regime. But the regime hasn’t changed one tiny bit. It is still the repressive theocracy which sponsors terrorism around the world. The “more reasonable and less radical” group may be telling Mr. Trump what he wants to hear.

He made no appeal to the Iranian people to rise up and throw out the ayatollahs’ regime.

The president said that we and the Israelis are “eviscerating” and “destroying” Iran’s nuclear facilities, its army, navy, and its industrial capability of building more weapons.

So what are we doing in Iran if not attempting to change the regime? Mr. Trump’s deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz expires today. But what more can we do to force the Strait’s reopening? A lot, but why should we when the NATO nations stay away from the conflict?

Mr. Trump has said that he is negotiating with the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Qalibaf, who has threatened us against landing U.S. troops in Iran. Mr. Qalibaf reportedly said last Sunday that, “As long as the Americans seek Iran’s surrender, our response is that we will never accept humiliation.”

As I have written elsewhere, Mr. Qalibaf is known as a “yes man” and his strings are probably being pulled by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian or Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmed Vahidi or both. These men are fanatics, as is Mr. Qalibaf, who is another former IRGC boss.

Negotiating with any of the three is going to lead to another military campaign and another disaster. There is no way forward when negotiating with remnants of the ayatollahs’ regime. They can try to wait out Mr. Trump’s administration and go about rebuilding Iran’s military and nuclear weapons capabilities.

Our air superiority has been challenged by Iran’s shooting down an F-15 and an A-10, neither of which is stealthy. Iran continues shooting missiles and launching drones at Israel and its Arab neighbors. The pilots of both aircraft have been rescued and the weapons officer of the F-15 was rescued on Sunday.

The people Mr. Trump is negotiating with cannot be relied upon to obey their obligations of any peace deal. If the ayatollahs can outlast the Trump presidency, and if a Democrat succeeds him, there will be no further military operations against Iran.

How Mr. Trump can end the war without a cease-fire or peace deal isn’t obvious. He can declare victory and come home but — without the ayatollahs’ regime’s overthrow — there can be no lasting peace with Iran. Which means there will be no peace in the Middle East or wherever Iran can project power.

READ MORE from Jed Babbin:

Cortes’s Misread of the Ukrainian Conflict

Straits of Uncertainty

The Missing Definition of Victory in Iran