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The American alcohol industry could be one of the biggest losers of the trade war with Canada and Europe. It’s also hitting areas of the country that voted Republican in droves during the 2024 election.

Whiskey has become big bucks in America. The industry contributed around $200 billion in economic activity in America, according to a 2022 study by Tourism Economics. But trouble not merely looms on the horizon; thanks to tariffs, it is already lurking behind vats, barrels, and in corporate accounting spreadsheets. (RELATED: Tariffs, Cars, and the Whiskey War)

The first thing that troubles America’s alcohol makers about tariffs is this: Many distillers and brewers are already being hit with higher prices for ingredients, packaging, and more. (RELATED: The Whiskey World War)

In Ohio, where the Trump–Vance ticket won by more than ten points, Garrett Hickey, the owner of Streetside Brewery, is already facing a 4.5 percent hike in pricing for aluminum cans. He says, “There is zero chance” his craft brewery is the only one facing increased packaging costs.

Hickey does not want to pass the cost on to his customers, but says, “Very few businesses will simply eat this cost, and if they do, that will have a downward effect on wages, benefits, potential pay increases and so on.”

The most frustrating part for Hickey is that Ohioans — and Americans — are still recovering from Biden-era inflation. “This is creating a lot of pain and stress,” he said.

Also in Ohio, Matt Cole, brewmaster at Fat Head’s Brewery, is concerned about the 25 percent tariff on goods including imported steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. Cole says, “It’s going to cost the industry a substantial amount of money,” calling tariffs that could run on for months or years, “crippling.”

Meanwhile, in red Texas, alcohol makers have said they’re prepared to see bottle and wine cask prices increase due to the potential tariffs. Those items are imported into the U.S. from places like Italy, Mexico, Canada, and China. Not to mention the botanicals, like Italian juniper, some distillers infuse into their product.

“Many wine and spirits categories, such as Tequila and Bourbon, are designated as distinctive products that can only be produced in certain geographical regions around the world,” warned the Toasts not Tariffs Coalition, a group of 52 associations representing the U.S. alcohol industry and related industries.

In blue Virginia, other problems have arisen. Bill Butcher, founder of Port City Brewing in Alexandria, Virginia, says that the aluminum tariffs that took effect on March 12 have caused a shift from cans to bottles, but the uptick in demand for bottles has left his brewery unable to source them. Butcher says, “Our bottle supplier is cutting us off at the end of the month.”

Butcher also frets about the impact of tariffs on pricing for barley and malt. Butcher says the malt he acquires from Canada is of unparalleled high quality. He anticipates tariffs forcing the price of a pint of beer up, and driving customer demand down. “Are people still going to come here and pay $12 a pint instead of $8?” he asks. “Our business will slow down.”

But even for brewers and distillers not already facing these challenges, uncertainty over tariff policy hangs like a sword of Damocles over their heads. Because administration policy can change daily or even hourly, it forces them to consider the worst-case scenario while hoping for the best. (RELATED: The ‘Most Bad’ Option: Trump’s Tariff Uncertainties)

The worst case, predictably, has involved retaliatory actions from other countries targeted with tariffs.

After the administration threatened tariffs on Canadian imports last month, Canada decided to pull American-made whiskey from store shelves. That move raised anxiety levels in Kentucky, where distilleries contributed $9 billion in economic and tourism activity according to the Kentucky Distillers’ Association (KDA). Trump won Kentucky by almost 31 percent in 2024. (RELATED: Tariffs, a Solution in Search of a Problem)

“That is worse than a tariff itself, because you’re not even given a chance to compete,” said Eric Gregory, president of Kentucky Distillers’ Association, last month during a Bourbonomics event in Louisville.

For Fawn Weaver, founder and CEO of Uncle Nearest Inc., the priority is protecting the company’s bottom line, no matter what. “That’s my responsibility, and I take it seriously,” she said in a statement. While Weaver clearly takes an “if you can’t control it, try not to worry about it too much” attitude, she noted in an interview that tariffs could impact how Uncle Nearest operates and “how we move, how we market, and potentially how we price.”

Economists aren’t surprised that the alcohol industry is talking about price hikes.

“Tariffs are a tax,” said Ryan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. “They make food, housing, cars, and clothing less affordable.” (RELATED: Taxes by Another Name)

Young adds that American consumers responding to higher prices without pay hikes by doing the obvious thing — cutting costs — will ultimately cost American jobs. “All these little decisions might cost a job here and a job there in seemingly random industries,” declared Young. “Tariffs caused them, but good luck tracing it back to the source.”

This is despite the fact that the administration claims the tariffs are about saving American jobs. The White House cited a Coalition for a Prosperous America commentary that claimed steel tariffs created over 4,000 jobs. But Young said that’s ignoring job losses in other industries that use steel. He said the auto, construction, and appliance-making industries lost 75,000 jobs from the tariffs.

Back to spirits and beer, while some domestic alcohol makers have expressed optimism that people craving a drop of the good stuff will explore American-made products, it’s no guarantee. And even if they do, that is unlikely to save the administration from the political death sentence that is higher consumer prices.

“It was voter concern about high prices that got Trump elected,” said Bryan Riley, Director of the Free Trade Initiative at National Taxpayers Union. “If Americans see tariffs drive up the cost of food and clothing or cause a big decline in the stock market, there will be no need to argue against the tariffs, because everyone will feel their impact.”

The higher prices and market disruption already being borne by distillers and brewers — to say nothing of economists and policy experts’ warnings — should be a flashing red light for the administration. Tariffs could easily come back to bite Republicans in the midterms good intentions be damned.

Taylor Millard is a writer in Alexandria, Virginia. His work has featured in the Spectator, Washington Examiner, Inside Sources, and other publications.

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