Nate Silver gives early nod to likeliest Democratic front-runner for 2028

U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is generating a lot of talk about her future presidential prospects, and one pollster predicts she could top the Democratic Party ticket in 2028.

Pollster and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver forecasted the 35-year-old New York Democrat as the party’s likely choice on his Silver Bulletin newsletter and video Wednesday, where he discussed predictions with former FiveThirtyEight podcast host Galen Druke.

“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke said of the lawmaker. “In a Yale poll just out this week, AOC has the highest net favorability rating of any of the Democrats that they asked about.”

Both ⁦@NateSilver538⁩ and ⁦@galendruke⁩ say that the likeliest next nominee of the Democratic Party is ⁦⁦@AOC⁩ https://t.co/HXejFeR39A

— David Freedlander (@freedlander) April 16, 2025

“So that means that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party and there’s a lot of people who could potentially get on board with her,” he added. “But I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support. I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028 and it’s going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin, and I think that’s Ocasio-Cortez.”

Druke contended that the media is “kind of obsessed” with AOC and “they’re going to follow her every move, which means she will be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process.”

“I agree with everything,” Silver replied.

“She was going to be my first pick, and I can’t conceal that now, right? Because of some of the polling, because she has this kind of progressive lane, probably not to herself, because she is younger and media savvy. I mean, look, in polls, if she were to try to primary Chuck Schumer, she is now ahead in those polls and New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate bloc,” he added, though he wondered if Ocasio-Cortez would even run.

“I think she’s gonna run,” Druke said. “If you’ve been following her moves in terms of her ‘Fight Oligarchy’ tour, in terms of the kind of content she’s putting out on social media.”

He argued that “she has learned a lot as a politician since those early days of opposing Amazon, and especially those early days of the ‘Abolish ICE’ stuff that was very unpopular ultimately.”

Druke and Silver agreed that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro would be their second-most likely nominee, while they differed on third place, with Silver betting on New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Druke choosing former Vice President Kamala Harris.

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Originally from New York, Powers graduated from New York University and eventually made her way to sunny South Florida where she has been writing for the BizPacReview team since 2015.

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