The next month might be something of a bumpy ride for the party and Kemi Badenoch

The current leadership of the Conservative party is bracing itself for a potentially awkward month or so.

It’s not any one thing, though the major focus is the local elections, but a combination of variables around those results that could – and it is at this stage theoretical – cause Kemi Badenoch a headache, or worse.

A number of these variables have been explored already on this site, and via results from our own Conservative Home survey – the one Tory MPs, and Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet members publicly profess not to focus on much, but privately absolutely do.

Let’s take the local elections as the starting point. A month ago our survey revealed a widespread membership belief that the results on May 1^st would be pretty bad news for the party, and therefore bad for Kemi Badenoch.

There’s no escaping the fact that either the media, the membership or our political opponents – and probably all three – will see these council elections as some form of verdict on Kemi’s leadership so far. This is widely accepted amongst those closest to her, and they’re certainly braced for that.

Lord Ashcroft’s polling data, published here today, contains the perhaps unexpected and potentially awkward detail that amongst Conservative voters, there is an expectation of making gains on May  1^st. I’m not sure anyone at the top is feeling quite so confidant, but obviously that would be a great result. More strategising has gone into handling significant and anticipated Reform gains (‘at whose expense most?’ is still a question) than the easy PR response to ‘a great night for the Conservatives’

If that happens, it is to be welcomed, but let’s stay focused on the concerns.

The last time this set of locals was contested was off the back of the good Boris wave, the one where there was public enthusiasm, not the bad one, where immigration number sky rocketed. It would be quite a feat to match that good result, let alone top it, however, if any losses are not as severe as the general election last year, Badenoch and her team will breathe easier.

If however our survey last month turns out to be accurate, and it’s track record is pretty solid, then questions are going to be asked, if they aren’t being already, bringing other variables into play. Both of which have been explored, again by our survey.

The first, is that huge lead Robert Jenrick has with members in our Shadow Cabinet league table. I’ve discussed this before, but the simple political fact is whether he wants to lead the party, or not – I think even he’d agree he still does at some point – his own vigorous style of opposition and his successes with it – the victory over two-tier justice and the sentencing council backing down, for one – mean he’s going to get attention whatever his future. And opposing is part of the Conservative’s job right now.

He doesn’t even need to be ‘on manoeuvres’ – whether he is or isn’t – to be positioned as the alternative, should Kemi Badenoch struggle, it’s there in the membership verdict and the chatter. Her team are also braced for this.

Badenoch has been campaigning hard for the locals, she congratulated Jenrick on his success in the sentencing row, and he chose to serve in her shadow Cabinet, all of which is small fry compared to the fact that it is still very hard to find a Tory MP, or councillor, who thinks another contest now, wouldn’t be a disaster for the party. Again the precise nature of the local election results will have some effect on that equation.

Perhaps the more significant sign of any disquiet, which is clearly not dependent on the results, but might add to the mix, was outlined by Henry Hill yesterday as results of our survey suggest:

“More than half (55 per cent) think that the Party should be moving faster toward developing a full policy programme”

The other significant finding is that clearly over half member respondents feel the party has not gone far enough acknowledging the mistakes it made in Government.

This is a double edged conundrum for the leader’s team. On the one hand they could address this head on and just talk about nothing else for a bit, which would be strategically difficult given most of the shadow cabinet were involved in government, and at the same time hand a box of ammunition to their opponents.

On the other hand, those regular caveats that appear in columns from the Shadow cabinet addressing government failings “including those made by Conservative governments” clearly aren’t satisfying members desires for a full mea culpa. I know this too is being wrestled with at the top.

I’d predict you’ll get more, and perhaps more explicit and detailed, versions of the latter, and not the former. No doubt we’ll return to the question in future surveys and see if the dial shifts.

So with a number of potentially awkward variables in play ahead of those local elections results, what do we know of the leadership teams thinking?

First there are some, and a number whose judgement has been consistently solid, who think the locals won’t be catastrophic, and if not great, at least manageable. If that is the case, the leadership team will point to the fact the leader has been putting in the campaign yards, something sceptics have consistently accused her of shying from.

There are some who are more worried about the results, and will go back to the point from the survey that there may not have been enough ‘sorry’ for the past. They will say it’s not a referendum on Kemi Badenoch, but that voters are still not over their disregard for all things Conservative.

It’s almost a mantra with one of her closest advisers, which I can see being deployed were results to be bad, that: “the voters are not listening to us yet, that’s why we take the time now to renew and rebuild” – it might emerge as ‘we still have to build trust with the electorate that the party really is under new leadership’ – in the crudest sense it’s the old ‘change’ narrative. It at least has the benefit of being true, but that doesn’t always mean it works.

Until May 1^st expect the campaigning on the ground to accelerate and intensify, because for the Party and potentially the leader herself, the next few weeks might take some navigation.

The only positive and concrete aspect is, I know the leadership team are very focused on it, and perhaps hoping – wishfully or not- it’s not such a bumpy ride as it might appear now.