Korean conservatives face the abyss as former hard left candidate set for crushing win

SEOUL, South Korea — South Koreans are overwhelmingly expected to elect a veteran liberal politician as president who has advocated for closer relations with China and North Korea over his long career. Still, political pundits and analysts in Seoul say Lee Jae-myung, who has a massive lead in most polls before the Tuesday election, lacks a mandate to change the country’s alliance with the U.S.

Polls show Mr. Lee, 61, the liberal Democratic Party of Korea’s candidate, running far ahead of the conservative People Power Party’s Kim Moon-soo. Aggregated data puts Mr. Lee at 47.2%, Mr. Kim at 38.1% and third runner Lee Jun-seok, a young right-winger heading the minority Reform Party, at 9.7%.

Mr. Lee’s looming election, considered all but a done deal in South Korea, has raised alarm among some American defense hawks. On the American Enterprise Institute’s website, Korea watcher Nicholas Eberstadt accused Mr. Lee of a “romantic fascination with China and the CCP” and wondered whether Seoul would become “a runaway ally.”

Wi Sung-lac, a DPK foreign policy expert and a member of South Korea’s unicameral legislature, the National Assembly, preached calm. He told The Washington Times that Mr. Lee is not “pro-Chinese” and said, “We don’t believe we need to tilt back to China.”

Mr. Lee and his top opponent, Mr. Kim, have promised to strengthen ties with the U.S., but Mr. Lee has sharply criticized ousted President Yoon Suk Yeol’s aggressive stance on China. Even after moving to the middle politically, Mr. Lee promised to dial back the anti-China rhetoric. “I will stabilize and manage” relations with China, he has told voters.

That campaign stump talk has worried some Washington conservatives, but Seoul pundits point out similar concerns during the five-year term of liberal president Moon Jae-in, who was in office from 2017 to 2022. Relations with the United States survived despite Mr. Moon’s multiple meetings with North Korea’s leader.

The election Tuesday is two years earlier than expected. It was moved up on the calendar because of Mr. Yoon’s impeachment this year.

Lawmakers removed Mr. Yoon after his ill-fated attempt in December to declare martial law.

The political crisis that followed split Mr. Yoon’s party, the PPP. Though Mr. Kim, Mr. Yoon’s labor minister, won the party’s primary, his candidacy has not restored public confidence in the conservatives.

A glimmer of hope for the PPP flickered briefly when Prime Minister Han Duck-soo stepped forward three weeks ago. The middle-of-the-road technocrat polled far north of Mr. Kim.

However, the two disagreed on a unified candidacy, and Mr. Han dropped out of the race. Mr. Kim also did not reach an arrangement with Mr. Lee, a former PPP member.

The PPP is a minority in the National Assembly, which will not hold its next elections until 2028. The presidential election results could sideline South Korea’s conservatives from political power for at least three years.

One-party control in Seoul, with Mr. Lee calling the shots, could spell trouble for relations with the U.S.

“What I am concerned about is, if Lee consolidates his power base to be undisputed leader, he is going to have full power with no balances or checks,” said Yang Sun-mook, who has been a foreign affairs adviser to both major parties. “He is going to make his own kingdom.”

From hard left to center right?

With the presidency in sight, Mr. Lee, who has lost two previous tilts at the title, has toned down his fiery persona and more extreme policies in recent months.

Mr. Lee grew up in extreme poverty and overcame severe difficulties to become a lawyer. Entering politics, he was a successful local mayor and provincial governor before taking the DPK’s helm.

The no-nonsense executive’s bruising political style made enemies along the way. Several aides have committed suicide, and he is hounded by allegations that he has illegally sent funds to North Korea and that he lied in previous elections.

Still, he has triumphed against all manner of lawfare. If elected, he gains presidential immunity from further charges short of insurrection or treason.

A trip to North Korea, a chummy meeting with China’s ambassador, remarks blaming NATO for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and his repeated calls to rejigger Seoul’s relationships with Beijing and Moscow have horrified conservatives.

“I don’t think he has had any close relations with Americans — not with politicians, not with anyone,” said Mr. Yang. “But he has several ties with China and North Korea.”

Realistically, however, he has limited wiggle room for any attempt to transform South Korea’s geopolitics.

The country’s landmark security alliance with the U.S. has massive support: more than 71%, per the most recent poll. That is a strong reality check.

More recent polls have found that a surging dislike of China has overtaken South Koreans’ customary historical animosity toward Japan.

These factors may explain Mr. Lee’s rebranding as a centrist.

In February, he rechristened the liberal DPK as a “center-right party.” He has made real policy changes, such as dropping a long-standing opposition to nuclear power.

He has also held a photo opportunity with the acting U.S. ambassador to Seoul and repeatedly underscored the importance of the U.S. alliance.

A blowhard anti-Japanese orator, he has committed to maintaining the trilateral Seoul-Tokyo-Washington security arrangements, pioneered by Mr. Yoon, that have particularly strong support on Capitol Hill.

Some worry that Mr. Lee’s reformist tendencies could damage the chaebol, the giant industrial conglomerates such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor that form the backbone of South Korea’s export-based economy.

Others say corporate governance reforms are overdue and could chip away at the “Korean Discount,” Korea Inc.’s traditionally low stock valuations and dividends.

“Perception abroad is that these companies are great,” said Daniel Tudor, a former adviser to the Moon government. “But if you are a small shareholder, you may not capture the value of your investment; the [company] chairman may capture the value.”

A man of many faces

Opinion is divided over whether Mr. Lee’s rightward shift is legitimate or tactical.

“He is a smart guy, and an operator,” said Mr. Tudor, the author of “Korea: The Impossible Country.” “I think he will be more moderate in power than out of it.”

“He is a known populist among lower- and middle-class people,” said Mr. Yang. “There is no way he is going to insist on far-left policies.”

Others are less sure.

“I assume that once elected, because his party has the House, his move to the center will turn out to be an election strategy and there will be a move back to the left,” said Michael Breen, author of “The New Koreans.” “But how that will manifest, I don’t know.”

Mr. Yang acknowledged one fear related to the U.S. administration, which is expected to reach out to the new Korean president on issues such as the role of U.S. troops in the region and tariffs.

“Trump is not like previous presidents; he is a business dealer,” he said. “I don’t know if Lee is fully aware of his tendencies, so if he is a little radical toward the Trump administration, that worries me a little bit.”

Self-described conservatives are more scathing about the DPK candidate.

“He is a real fake person: Nobody should trust him,” said K.B. Yoon, a Seoul-based academic with close connections to senior conservatives.

“I am sure he is controlled by North Korea and China, a puppet — like an actor who cannot refuse orders.”

Mr. Yoon, like many supporters of the impeached Mr. Yoon (no relation), is convinced that polling companies and the National Election Commission are corrupt.

Hwang Kyo-ahn, a conservative former prime minister, raised allegations over the weekend that early voting has been fraudulent.

Mr. Yoon claimed he had data, the accuracy of which The Washington Times could not confirm, that indicated at least three voter districts had reported more than 100% returns.

Mr. Yoon anticipates right-wingers taking to the streets if the DPK captures the House and the presidency.

That is hardly unusual in South Korea.

During the impeachment crisis, both left and right held massive, noisy demonstrations, but all was peaceful, bar one court invasion.

That may not last.

“I think there will be blood in the streets,” Mr. Yoon said.