More Than 10% of Non-Doms Already Gone From UK – Guido Fawkes

More Than 10% of Non-Doms Already Gone From UK

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A new report written by ex-Treasury economist Chris Walker estimates that more than 10% of non-doms have already packed their bags and fled the UK thanks to Labour scrapping the non-dom tax status. Another big blow to Reeves…

The report titled UK Non-Doms Tax Reform: A Critique and Retrospective Analysis estimates 26,000 non-doms – out of 238,000 who claimed non-dom status in the last 18 years – have left the UK based on figures from Henley & Partners on the number of millionaires leaving London in 2024. Data from the CEBR estimates if 25% of non-doms were to leave the UK, the net gain for the Treasury would be zero. Any higher the Treasury would start losing revenue…

The report also points out:

• The government based the policy on “over-optimistic and incomplete analysis” from academics at Warwick University led by pro-tax fanatic Arun Advani, who also provided the academic basis for the Farm Tax. They only examined the behavioural response of long-term resident non-doms, who were always likely to have a greater attachment to the UK. And they estimated only 0.37% of non-doms would leave the UK…
• The OBR ascribed a very high uncertainty rating to their tax revenue costings, meaning the abolition of non-dom status carried a high fiscal risk.
• The government didn’t factor in international competition. As the UK scrapped the non-dom status, other countries are opening their doors to non-doms. For example, Italy is offering a flat tax to wealthy non-doms of €200,000…

Chris Walker, founder of CW Economics and the report’s author said:

“It is clear that the original research that underpinned the Government’s decision to abolish non-dom status took a leap of faith. Its methodology around predicting behavioural changes was too narrow and that led to very optimistic findings about the number of non-doms who would leave and the amount of tax revenue the Treasury would raise”

Laffer curve already kicking into action…