With just over half the year remaining, the United States is on pace to record the lowest national murder rate in its history, according to federal officials and crime analysts.
Law enforcement agencies credit a renewed focus on crime prevention and the aggressive enforcement of immigration law under President Donald Trump.
John Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and a leading researcher on gun policy and crime statistics, wrote in The Federalist that the country could see a historic drop in murders by the end of 2025.
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Lott cited FBI Director Kash Patel, who stated the U.S. is on track to beat the current record low of 4.45 murders per 100,000 people, set in 2014.
“If you look at the trajectory, murder rates are plummeting,” Lott wrote.
“And it’s happening in an environment where law enforcement is being allowed to do its job again.”
Patel echoed this sentiment. “Let good cops be cops,” he said.
“I’m gonna let you, the agents, the police officers, the sheriffs, go out there and do the work you so badly want to do. And I’m gonna give you the resources you need to do it. And I’m gonna take away the politicization and weaponization … and that’s what we’ve done.”
NEW: Kash Patel says America is on track for its lowest murder rate in decades.
“That’s incredible,” Joe Rogan responded. “How did that become real?” he asked.
Patel credited one thing: “Let good cops be cops.”
He continued: “I’m gonna let you, the agents, the police officers,… pic.twitter.com/ZyqgK1SqmY
— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) June 6, 2025
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Under President Trump, the administration has rolled back Biden-era policies that pushed diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) directives onto police departments.
In their place, the White House has prioritized local authority and federal support for crime suppression, especially related to immigration enforcement.
A significant focus of that enforcement effort is the deportation of violent illegal aliens.
🚨 I LOVE THIS! Just listen to our FBI Director, Kash Patel. Federal law enforcement is in good hands.
“The only ask I have of you in the community is the next time you see a cop, thank them. The next time you see someone safeguarding our schools, shake their hand. The next time… pic.twitter.com/LbzqYDdeMf
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 27, 2025
According to Lott’s article, the Biden-Harris administration previously acknowledged that 662,566 individuals—roughly 9 percent of the 7.4 million non-detained migrants released into the U.S.—had criminal records.
The Trump administration has since prioritized removing individuals with criminal backgrounds, and the impact is showing in crime data.
This is a whole-of-government approach to restore law and order. We are grateful to our military members and law enforcement who have acted with patriotism in the face of assault, taunts, and violence.
Under the leadership of @POTUS Trump and @Sec_Noem we will defend our law… pic.twitter.com/hMC13hUljp
— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) June 11, 2025
Beyond deportations, there’s also been a sharp rise in self-deportations.
Andrew Arthur of the Center for Immigration Studies has pointed to declining foreign-born employment under Trump as evidence.
A recent analysis in the Wall Street Journal cited a net drop of 773,000 in the immigrant population in the first four months of Trump’s second term.
The Washington Post also reported a significant exit of foreign-born workers from the U.S. labor market—about one million since March.
The paper described the trend as a sign of a tightening labor pool, but also noted that average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent in May, reaching $36.24, outpacing inflation and boosting household spending power.
Under the Trump administration, job growth has shifted toward U.S. citizens.
The Biden legacy: there are roughly the same number of native-born Americans working today as before the pandemic, w/ all net job growth going to foreign-born workers whose employment is up by almost 5 million… pic.twitter.com/WEFPiHjSoI
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 7, 2025
White House Director of Policy Communications Jacki Kotkiewicz cited Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that since Trump took office, native-born Americans have added 1.25 million jobs, while foreign-born workers have seen a net loss of nearly 200,000 jobs.
Under President Trump, native-born workers have accounted for ALL employment gains. 💪💪
➡️Foreign-born employment: -195k
➡️Native born employment: +1,249kOver a similar period in Biden’s final two years in office, native-born Americans accounted for just ONE-THIRD of gains.
— Jacki Kotkiewicz (@jackikotkiewicz) June 6, 2025
The figures do not account for under-the-table employment or illegal workers removed through deportation.
The latest jobs report, released in June, showed the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May—exceeding forecasts of 125,000.
At the same time, the federal government reduced its workforce by 22,000 jobs.
The administration’s approach, combining immigration enforcement with support for law enforcement agencies, is being credited with significant improvements in both public safety and labor market dynamics.
Officials say those trends are expected to continue through the remainder of the year.
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