Maybe he’s ‘outsmarted us all’

A world-renowned economist who previously raised the alarm about President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs now suspects that the president may have “outsmarted all of us.”

In a blog post published on Saturday, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk speculated that the president might keep the tariffs low long enough to ease economic uncertainty while also delivering a significant uptick in tax revenue.

“Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”https://t.co/GjP5vsSFhd

— Andrea Widburg (@Bookwormroom) June 27, 2025

Recall that in May, President Trump initiated a 90-day pause on his high tariffs. The pause has coincided with an uptick in the stock market as economic uncertainty has declined.

Sløk’s thesis, as outlined in the blog, appears to be that Trump might keep the pause going even after July 9 so as to keep the market happy and steadily moving back up toward its previous record highs.

If that were to happen, America would benefit both from a skyrocketing stock market AND the revenue from the lowered but still in effect tariffs.

“As we approach the Trump administration’s self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade deals, markets are starting to speculate about what comes next,” Sløk began in his blog post.

He quickly moved on to speculating on what might happen were Trump to extend the pause by a year.

“Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs, and it would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets,” he wrote

“This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers. Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us,” he added.

The blog post from Sløk marks a 180 from what he speculated in April, when he wrote that Trump’s tariffs might trigger a recession by the start of summer 2025.

“Slok predicts that container ship traffic to U.S. ports from China will come to a halt by mid-May, followed by a stop in trucking demand that will lead to empty shelves in stores and lower sales for companies by the end of the month,” the Commercial Observer reported at the time.

“He also expects layoffs in the trucking and retail industries to commence by early June, with the full brunt of the recession taking effect sometime this summer,” the reporting continued.

Brutal note from Apollo’s Torsten Sløk this morning on impact of US tariffs. 90% chance of self-induced recession, with outsized impact on small businesses and potential hit to GDP of 4%. pic.twitter.com/iIUvzTqksv

— Stuart Loren (@StuLoren) April 19, 2025

According to Fortune magazine, Sløk isn’t alone in now predicting great things for America.

“Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities’ head of equity strategy, expects tariffs to settle in the 10% to 12% range, low enough to have a minimal impact, and sees the S&P 500 soaring to 7,007, making him Wall Street’s biggest bull,” the magazine notes.

But he’s cautioned that it’s still vital that the president pursue good trade deals with the world’s biggest economies. That way the markets can look to next year instead of stressing out about this year.

“Then you can start to extrapolate out,” he reportedly explained to CNBC last month. “Then the market starts looking through things. They start looking through any sort of economic slowdown or weakness, and then we start looking to ’26 not at ’25.”

Meanwhile, even FactCheck.Org admits that “revenue from tariffs on imported foreign goods increased substantially in April and May, setting monthly records,” though it does take issue with Trump’s claim made earlier this month that the U.S. earned $88 billion in two months.

JUST IN – THE EXPERTS WERE WRONG: Trump announces a massive $88 BILLION in tariff revenue.

Just wow.

pic.twitter.com/QvZAZj0l8v

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) June 26, 2025

“The U.S. got $22.2 billion from tariffs in May, a record amount in one month, the Treasury figures show,” the fact-checker notes. “That was up almost 42% from $15.6 billion in tariff revenue in April, and the April total, the previous record, had increased more than 90% from $8.2 billion in March.”

Senior Staff Writer
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V. Saxena is a staff writer for BizPac Review with a decade of experience as a professional writer, and a lifetime of experience as an avid news junkie. He holds a degree in computer technology from Purdue University.

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