Luke Graham: Reform and the SNP need to realise nationalism does not work

Luke Graham was the Conservative Member of Parliament for Ochil and Perthshire South from 2017 to 2019, the candidate in Perth and Kinross-shire in 2024, and a former head of the Downing Street Union Unit.

Another week, another poll predicting a Reform sweep of the country. According to pollsters, Reform seems unstoppable – climbing from around 25 per cent of vote share in January to 34 per cent in early summer. The party is performing well in local elections, seemingly taking votes from the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP.  

It is not completely unknown for a populist surge to threaten the major parties while they are unpopular. It should be noted that UKIP polled almost as many votes (3.9m) in 2015 as Reform UK took in 2024 (4.1m) and peaked at 25 per cent of the vote share, only to return one parliamentary seat. 

Still, memories are short, and social media is now far more embedded in our daily lives than in it was in 2015. As a result, we have people from all backgrounds wanting, in the words of Sir Rod Stewart, “to give Nigel a go,” out of pure frustration with the last Conservative government and disappointment with the current Labour government under the uninspiring leadership of Keir Starmer. 

It comes as no surprise then that in the past week there has been another defection from the Conservative ranks in the north-east of Scotland, with the former MP for Aberdeen South crossing the floor to Reform UK, claiming that Reform UK (despite Reform UK stating they would support another disastrous term of an SNP administration in Holyrood) were the next best thing for Scotland and the rest of the UK.  

Fair enough, I guess. For the ambitious, Reform’s poll ratings appear to be a harbour in an electoral storm, which for Scotland and Wales will see the front hit in summer next year with the Holyrood and Senedd elections. All predictions point to the Conservative & Unionist Party being pushed to fourth place – clearing a path for Plaid Cymru and the SNP. Nationalists to the north, nationalists to the west, who would think that England would be sat so solidly in the centre-left?  

And yet, Reform’s success isn’t just a Conservative problem or indeed the problem of any particular party. It is the frustration and disappointment of the British public finding a voice after handing Labour super majority and watching them flitter it away in a matter of months due to poor planning and poorer political choices. 

As much as I would like to lay all the blame at the door of the Labour Party, we’ve been heading this way for a while. The trust shaken on the back of Cummings and the handling of Covid, followed by Liz Truss’ premiership meant Rishi Sunak’s job was almost impossible and the result of the General Election unavoidable. 

The Tories were cast out only to be replaced by a Labour party seemingly more concerned with suits, free tickets and taking cash from pensioners rather than pushing Britain forward. This has been bad for Labour, but even worse for the public whose faith in our electoral system was already hanging by a thread, forcing many to disengage from contemporary political debate all together. 

Overlay all this disappointment and disaffection with the feeling that the British state cannot get anything done – from the micro resurfacing of roads to the building of HS2, it is no wonder an estimated 16,500 millionaires have already left the country in 2025 and more young professionals (our working and tax-yielding future) are fleeing to Australia, the USA and Dubai for more exciting opportunities and a higher standard of living. 

Disappointed, disaffected, distracted – be in no doubt this is a dour hour for British politics. The feeling of “why bother?” is beginning to pervade almost every aspect of our lives; I hear it in business, in local communities, in stage shows and amongst families – if hard work isn’t going to pay off, better to throttle back, enjoy the summer and let others take the strain.  

Indeed, why push ourselves to rearm, if we honestly think we can make no difference on the international stage? What is the point of even trying renewable energy or new technologies if China is bigger and more responsible for the impact than we are? Why lean into the difficult welfare, social care, and NHS reforms when we can continue to squeeze the middle just enough to plug the holes of our sinking ship of state? As long as our work-life balance feels good, Netflix keeps rolling and our social media feeds drench our brains with endorphins we should just sit back, let what happens happen and gloriously sail into our national sunset. 

And yet, it has always been our ability to shake ourselves from our national complacency and lift the country up to shape not only our own futures, but contribute to the international scene, helping millions of others. It means shrugging off the chains of the 2010s and addressing the challenges of the 2030s. It means cracking into all the arguments of all the nationalist parties: Reform UK and the SNP, and showing people what is so easily proven – nationalism doesn’t work.  

This is hard, hard work. And I get why many wouldn’t want to do it – you get a lot of hassle, but I can guarantee as a former MP and having worked in No10 – when the political will is there, we can do great things. We’ve fought wars, set up the UK-wide NHS, created fantastic technologies, led the world in thought and action. Now would be the worst time to give up and hand the keys of power to populist, nationalist parties. 

Although the devolved elections are a year away and a General Election is not due for another three to four years, the press reads as if it is tomorrow. The media may have the tempo wrong, but the urgency is right, we have to start tackling the big issues today, ferociously challenging opponents on social media, mainstream media and anywhere else they reside.  

Most importantly we have to chart a course that shows we are credible, radical, and desperate for power, not for ourselves, but to deliver for every corner of Britain.  

There is no better place to start than in Scotland and Wales.