New polls from Emerson College on hypothetical Republican and Democratic 2028 primaries position Vice President JD Vance with a 34-percentage-point lead over the next candidate, while no clear frontrunner is emerging on the Democratic side.
It goes without saying that hypothetical polls are hardly decisive. The election is still almost four years away, and President Donald Trump is far from a lame duck. Trump himself said in February that “it’s too early” to name Vance as his successor in 2028, despite the fact that Vance “is very capable.” The president even said he was “not joking” about the possibility of running for a third term, but he later ruled out the possibility on NBC’s Meet the Press in May.
Nonetheless, the fact that Emerson’s poll reports Trump’s vice president as the clear favorite for 2028 reflects that Trump maintains a solid hold on the Republican Party that he forcefully took over almost 10 years ago. He is the central figure of American political life.
In Emerson’s hypothetical 2028 ballot, 46 percent of Republican presidential primary voters supported Vance. The next highest candidate was also a prominent member of the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who received 12 percent support.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was next with 9 percent, and Trump’s Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 5 percent support. Roughly 11 percent supported other candidates, while 17 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
Emerson had also conducted the poll in November (post-election). Then, 51 percent of respondents said they were undecided, and Vance received 30 percent support. DeSantis had the next highest support, with only 5 percent. Since November, Vance has remained Trump’s heir apparent and continued to grow support.
On the other hand, Emerson’s June poll found that the future of Democratic Party leadership is in disarray, showing no clear frontrunner. The highest response was undecided at 23 percent. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had 16 percent support, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 13 percent and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 12 percent. Eight other candidates ranged between 2 to 7 percent. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro each received 7 percent support, while Sen. Bernie Sanders received 5 percent.
The poll represented a major shift from last November’s poll, in which Harris had 37 percent support and a clear lead over other Democrats despite her decisive loss in the 2024 election. The next candidate, Newsom, was 30 points behind at 7 percent support, followed by Buttigieg with only 4 percent support.
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