Tehran Regime Change: Lessons from Chernobyl | The American Spectator

With the end of the 12 day war, the question of regime change in Iran remains central. There are many scenarios, highlighting different factors and views. Analysts contrast the sweeping 1979 revolution that deposed the Shah and brought the Islamic Republic to power with the failures of major protest movements to trigger a counter revolution. Pessimists predict that the regime will survive, continuing to impose its control over the lives of 90 million citizens, while attempting to rebuild the military and terror capabilities to attack Israel.

Alternative scenarios highlight the humiliation following the war in which the Israeli Air Force had complete freedom of action over all of Iran. As the scale of damage, in contrast to the regime’s propaganda, becomes apparent across the country, the challenges to the legitimacy of the leadership are likely to increase. This process could trigger a collapse from within, including defection by officials of the regime, and eventually, a loss of control.

To assess and analyze this scenario, it is useful to consider the collapse of the Soviet Union that began with the catastrophic accident at the nuclear reactor at Chernobyl in April 1986. The Kremlin leadership was already ossified at the time, much like its Iranian counterparts now. The explosion and its aftermath, including many deaths and large-scale radiation exposure, were clearly visible throughout the area and far beyond the borders of the USSR, but Moscow tried to cover-up the disaster to avoid embarrassment, like the response in Tehran.

Immediately after the explosion at Reactor No. 4, authorities sent teams of technicians and firefighters without protection, who were immediately exposed to lethal radiation. Moscow’s foolish attempt to control the narrative meant that the nearby city of Pripyat (with 50,000 residents) was not evacuated for 36 hours, despite extremely high radiation levels. Media coverage within Russia was heavily censored, but as casualties increased, word of the disaster spread quickly.

It was only on the third day that the USSR leadership issued a formal public statement, announcing what everyone already knew — that a “nuclear accident” had occurred. General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev did not publicly address the Soviet people until over two weeks after the explosion.

The Chernobyl catastrophe symbolized a closed and incompetent political system that endangered the entire population, and the institutions lost legitimacy, power, and control. Estonia and Lithuania moved out of the Kremlin’s orbit; in 1989, Germans broke down the most visible symbol of repression — the Berlin wall — without any resistance or response. Less than two years later, what remained of the Soviet Union imploded and disappeared.  As Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, acknowledged, the collapse began with Chernobyl.

In examining the prospects of a similar scenario in Iran, many of the factors are evident. The regime maintains power through repressive power and secrecy, but the Israeli military and security forces quickly destroyed Iran’s defenses, followed by 12 days of continuous attacks, highlighting the government’s vulnerability and incompetence. Numerous Iranian military and security officials, including in the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and key figures in the nuclear weapons program, were targeted in the first hours of the Israeli operation, and the regime could do nothing to protect them.

For a political collapse, millions of Iranians would have to overcome decades of fear and repression, and join the courageous protestors — particularly the women who have defied the regime and led the opposition. Seeing the ruins of bombed-out military installations, interior police headquarters, and destroyed walls of the infamous Evin prison where regime opponents were tortured, could, like the images of the Chernobyl catastrophe, empower the protest movements. Similarly, in the coming weeks and months, the damage to basic services such as gasoline supply and the banking system will make day to day life far more onerous, and add to the anger at the regime’s failures.

As in the Soviet strategy after Chernobyl, Tehran’s propaganda platforms, including statements by the Supreme Leader, are desperately attempting to control the narrative by denying the blatant failures and making absurd claims of a great victory over the Zionist enemy. In Russia, the public greeted such efforts with sarcasm and derision, and the same might well occur in Iran.

In the case of the Soviet Union, the erosion of legitimacy took place steadily during four years until the final collapse. For Iran to follow this route, signs of opposition could emerge in the coming months, leading to an accelerating spiral. And while there is no guarantee of regime change, the openings have been created.

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The writer is President of NGO Monitor and emeritus professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University, Israel.