Our Shadow Cabinet League Table continues to be dominated by one individual: Robert Jenrick. The shadow justice secretary has, yet again, pulled in the highest ranking at +71.0.
It is not an all-time high for him, but it still leaves Jenrick far in front of shadow chancellor Mel Stride who sits in second place on +48.0, as Jenrick’s efforts to speak to the membership – both through social media videos and a near constant string of association events – clearly continues to resonate with the grassroots.
And it remains quite a remarkable turn of events given how, during the run up to the leadership contest, Kemi Badenoch was able to consistently maintain a lead over Jenrick in our polling. In the final leadership survey before results were announced, for example, Badenoch had 55 per cent support versus Jenrick on 31 per cent.
Now Badenoch as leader has a net satisfaction rating (+18.1) around a quarter of Jenrick’s, and that still marks a vast improvement on her last league table number: 0.0.
Her recovery comes after a good few weeks of the Tories focusing on the economy in the lead-up to summer recess.
At the final meeting of the 1922 committee to mark the end of this parliamentary term, Badenoch addressed her backbenchers and said the topic would remain top of the Conservative Party’s agenda.
One shadow cabinet minister told ConHome:
“It was an upbeat meeting. We are going into recess in a better position than Labour, who are on the backfoot and Reform who are economically illiterate.
“No-one came to the meeting looking for a fight because we recognise a year ago we started from a very bad place, so it’s indisputable that we are in a better place than we were last July – but we have got a long way to go.”
Another adds:
“It was very positive and felt much better. The party feels in a much better place.”
But one was less glowing:
“It was fine.”
Much of the remaining shadow cabinet remains in flux within the league table. Chris Philp as shadow home secretary makes up the rest of the podium after Jenrick and Stride, coming in at +46.2. Never far from a broadcasting studio, he has been making renewed efforts to contribute to the party’s messaging – and, with many of his colleagues referring to him as “the duracell bunny”, it seems to be making a positive impact on recognition within the party membership. While Andrew Griffith comes in at fourth place, marking the same top four individuals as in our previous league table.
Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge is tied at +18.1 with Badenoch after a decent showing on the Northern Ireland veteran issue. Somehow shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel has escaped the negative rankings, moving up by +21.1 – although she doesn’t escape briefings from her colleagues, with multiple MPs criticising her presence in the shadow cabinet.
“It is shocking that she was included and still remains there,” one MP says, “how does Priti Patel speak to renewal?”..
The two party chairmen are mirroring one another across the + and – divide.
Nigel Huddleston sits at +2.7, with his co-chair Lord Johnson in at -2.7. Those in the party chair role can fare relatively favourably in our shadow cabinet league tables – but following a difficult set of locals, and still more losses in council by-elections, perhaps frustrations are being directed their way.
Despite a decent outing on welfare and reacting to Labour’s screeching benefits U-turn, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately begins the minus numbers.
But the most stinging rebukes are reserved for Ed Argar (-17.5), Alan Mak (-17.3), and Gareth Bacon (-10.8). The reasons for their poor performance are varied, but a lack of visibility and a sense of drift seem to dominate concerns amongst their colleagues. It marks one of the first times in recent polls that Mak does not place dead last.
This month sees a clear cluster of shadow ministers facing a credibility issue. Amid rumours of some sort of reshuffle soon coming down the line, the message from the grassroots could be read bluntly: step up or step aside.
It is expected that Badenoch will reshuffle when the Government decides to do theirs, with one shadow cabinet minister saying “she is not keen on doing a proactive reshuffle”, but it isn’t clear if it will be a shuffling of the deckchairs or a bolder move with new faces.
ConHome understands there are some in the shadow cabinet who have made it clear they would be okay with stepping back, while others are very keen to step forward.
One MP says:
“You couldn’t really get less political than the current crop so even giving some of the new intake a turn would be an improvement.”
But one shadow cabinet minister suggests:
“The consensus is you don’t promote 2024 intake MPs in – it would cause a lot of internal problems.”
It is worth bearing in mind the table doesn’t include results for those other figures who went for the leadership but do not sit in shadow cabinet, like James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat.
They have been making their own interventions – although limited in frequency – with Cleverly giving a recent speech on how conservatives can achieve success in the current political system, and Tugendhat writing for the Financial Times on the need for a new plan to power the economy that works for younger generations.
Back to the league table, a special note must go to Russell Findlay (+7.3), who leads the party in Scotland in a difficult climate. Darren Millar (-3.4), representing the party in Wales, receives a less kind verdict. While not at the bottom of the table, he has work to do in winning over an audience facing some difficult looking elections next year.
A month ago, we warned of “dead weight” – a shadow cabinet in urgent need of dynamism. June’s results echo that.
Members seem to be rewarding those who articulate a clear vision for their briefs and are out hitting the media rounds. The sharp declines for some lesser-known figures show that patience is wearing thin for those perceived as seat-warming or lacking impact.
But while our polling may see shifts, the national picture remains the same – and hangs at around 15-18 pts for the Conservative Party. It is that number which really needs to shift for Kemi Badenoch.
As one Tory MP put it:
“If shadow cabinet made a difference, with the impact Jenrick has landed in the media, we would be doing better in the polls. But fundamentally when it comes to national opposition, it comes down to what the leader is upto.”
If Badenoch were able to make a shift there, you could almost certainly picture a shift in her favourability here.
