A new report from big energy data and analytics firm Enverus finds that the rapid elimination of subsidies for wind and solar contained in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) is likely to have major impacts on those industries. The report finds that just 30% of solar projects currently proposed or in development and 57% of wind projects will be able to survive as the subsidies and tax breaks phase out by 2030.
These findings are the latest in a string of bad news for the U.S. renewables sector since the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January. On July 16 it was reported via a leaked internal memo that proposed wind and solar projects must now obtain signoff from Interior Secretary Doug Burgum before they can begin development of new projects across tens of millions of acres of federal lands or on the federal offshore waters.
That new requirement is a response to an executive order issued by the President on July 7, authorizing Burgum and other cabinet officials to ensure their departments strictly enforce the language in the OBBBA. In that order, titled “Ending American Dependence on Unreliable Energy Sources,” Trump directs the Secretary of the Interior to “revise regulations and policies to eliminate preferential treatment for wind and solar facilities compared to reliable, dispatchable energy sources.” He also instructs Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “terminate the clean electricity production and investment tax credits for wind and solar facilities and implement the enhanced Foreign Entity of Concern restrictions” consistent with the OBBBA language. (RELATED: EPA Slashes Workforce, Reorganizes To Save American Taxpayers)
In an interview, the author of the Enverus report, Enverus Energy Research Analyst Corianna Mah, told me she and her team limited their analysis to onshore wind and solar projects. “We did not analyze offshore wind,” she said, adding, “We believe it’s already dead in the water due to the high interconnection costs and supply chain inflation.”
Notably, the report finds that the state which leads the nation in installed capacity for both wind and solar generation, Texas, ranks as the state which will see the lowest percentage of solar projects currently in the interconnection queue on the state grid managed by ERCOT – just 6% – will now be able to survive through completion. This compares to survival rates of 40% for Illinois solar, 41% in Indiana, and near-100% survival rates in both California and Arizona.
When I asked what factors would account for such a wide disparity, Mah said it is all driven by the respective values in each state for Renewable Energy Certificates, or RECs. These are marketable instruments that enable individuals or companies to support renewable energy without having to build their own projects.
“Texas has met and surpassed its RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standard) targets,” she said, “and its RECs – now used primarily for voluntary compliance – trade at a steep discount, around $3/MWh, compared to other markets, like CAISO, where RECs command $20-$30/MWh due to mandatory compliance requirements.”
Mah’s report finds that Texas also ranks among the states with the lowest percentages of onshore wind projects expected to survive through completion, along with Iowa and Illinois, for the same reason. But, the report adds, “All evaluated wind projects in Montana and most in Oklahoma” are expected to make it into production.”
The Enverus findings are consistent with findings from a study by FTI Consulting Sr. Director Dan Goodwin, which also finds wind and solar taking a significant hit from the provisions in the OBBBA.
Coming as it does during a time of surging power demand driven by rapidly evolving AI technologies and their accompanying datacenters, this looming shortfall in anticipated wind and solar capacity must now be more than offset by rapid expansions in more traditional baseload generation. FTI’s study projects most of that need will be met by gas-fired generation in the near-to-mid-term, with more nuclear generation coming online in the out years.
This week’s unveiling of $92 billion in new private sector investments to develop the nation’s largest AI datacenter hub outside Pittsburgh, PA, appears to confirm that assessment. One thing is for sure: It’s all a huge balancing act with major implications for America’s future energy security.
David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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