Nicolas Webb: The Welsh Conservatives need to stop fighting yesterday’s battles

Nicolas Webb was the general election candidate in Newport West in 2015.

Less than a year from the Senedd election and Conservative prospects look bleak. If there is to be a much-reduced centre-right voice in the Senedd, policymaking will be poorer and scrutiny weaker.

The task facing the Welsh Conservatives should not be under-estimated. Since devolution the fortunes of the Westminster party has been a bigger influence on Senedd results than any decision taken in Wales. In past Senedd elections, the Conservatives have acted with a tactical focus; they sought out the issues likely to swing a small number of constituencies.

With the change in electoral system and current polling, this option is less relevant. Instead, they must prioritise policy ideas to win over voters.

At present the Tories are pledging to reverse the increase in size of the Senedd, reverse the ‘Tourism Tax’, return roads to a default 30mph, return workers to offices, and block any further devolution. While not reflected in the party’s polling, many of these resonate.

However, there is a thread which binds them together: they were yesterday’s argument. This article is a call for a pivot from these campaigns to those which are forward looking.

Criticism has been levelled recently by the Conservatives at the costs of empty Welsh Government offices. They note the cost to taxpayers but the solution proposed is to end the “unnecessary working from home policy”. The target might be public sector offices, but as someone who used to commute from Newport to Bath every day it sent a shiver down my spine.

Homeworking has rapidly become established. It presents challenges, but these are not insurmountable. It is understandably popular when compared to the old commute-and-pollute model and can benefit the economy of towns away from the big cities. If the offices are empty, surely the conservative solution is not to force people back into them, but to pledge to sell or lease the unnecessary buildings, resulting in a saving for the taxpayer and additional income for the public purse.

Efforts have been made to attempt to sound more hostile to immigration than Reform UK. No-one is buying it. Which is a good thing, because any considered look at the issues can quickly identify that the salient points are about fairness and integration.

While immigration is a reserved matter for the national government, in Wales much can be done to improve integration. Rather than battle for votes by meaninglessly trying to sound ‘tough’ on immigration, it is better to accept nuance and build credibility by seriously addressing how we can develop ways for people coming to Wales to be a part of a shared community.

With the Welsh Government deciding against an M4 relief road, reducing speed limits, and abandoning of road building schemes, it is not a surprise that the Conservatives have pitched themselves as the party of the driver. However, it should not be done blindly to the blight, pollution, and inefficiency which cars can cause in our urban areas.

As recently as 2020, the Welsh Conservatives were publishing and promoting policy documents calling for urban renewal. A refreshed interest in creating more walkable, cyclable, safer, greener cities would be welcome.

It would also be wise to re-assess further devolution to Wales. There are current devolved functions which would simply deliver a better outcome for the citizen if related powers were also held in Wales.

One of the focus points on further devolution has been the Crown Estate. While I understand in the concerns, Scotland demonstrates just how lucrative this could be to the Welsh exchequer. It would be particularly helpful in unlocking the potential of coastal renewable energy which has scope to be a huge clean, green, driver of growth for Wales.

Indeed, economic growth is notably not incentivised by the current devolution settlement – this has tended to lead to a government simply redistributing public money based on a flawed Barnett formula rather than seeking to grow the Welsh economy.

However, there has also been a blind spot in Senedd politics to re-evaluating what has already been devolved and auditing whether that is in the best interests of the Welsh citizen.

It does not serve the public interest that NHS IT procurement is done separately by four nations without considering compatibility between systems; nor does it make sense that a bus pass which pre-devolution would have allowed travel across the UK now stops at the first major destination in England. Rather than a blanket opposition to further devolution, there should be an openness to a two-way devolution driven by what works for the citizen rather than structured around our awkward constitution.

While it is understandable that the Conservatives wish to stand out in their opposition to Senedd expansion, the pledge to reverse it lacks credibility. The decision has been taken.

But there was a missed opportunity to rebalance local government as the Senedd expanded. Few argue that 22 local authorities is the appropriate number, there is scope for consolidation and the same is true of the number of elected members on each authority. It would be a logical step to pivot from fighting the decision which has been taken to making the case for alternative efficiency savings which can also drive local government into something more focused on the future challenges.

The Welsh Conservatives need not only to differentiate on policy, but they also need to pivot on narrative. They can be the party that talks positively about the opportunities of technology, the future of work, and how when harnessed these aspects can fund improved public services. From adversity can come innovation.