Lord Ashcroft: My latest focus groups – ‘This is what happens when you get normal people like us and no-one listens to them’

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com

My latest focus groups took place in Bolton, Rochdale, Stoke and Nuneaton.

We heard from former Conservatives who switched to Labour or Reform at the last election, and more habitual Labour voters who might be in the market for an alternative.

People’s recollections of recent political news were dominated by tax rises, crime, U-turns, winter fuel, problems in the NHS and – above all, whatever their voting history – illegal immigration.

Most, including regular Labour voters, had some sympathy with those who had demonstrated outside asylum hotels, especially following reports of crimes allegedly committed by migrants. They believed most of the protesters were local people with genuine and understandable concerns – especially about crime and public safety – and resented the suggestion that anyone protesting must have been an extremist: “It’s nothing to do with being a right-wing fascist or anything. People are at the end of their rope. If you’ve got daughters, you’re frightened for your children. Even your sons”; “My mate’s daughter was followed by one of the immigrants from the hotels. I mean, enough’s enough.”

“They wonder why people are upset about it!”

A few thought the problems had been exaggerated in parts of the media (“GB News makes everyone think they’re all in the Hilton Hotel on Deansgate, but they’re in desolate Premier Inns”). More often, however, they saw the protests as the culmination of mounting anger and frustration over illegal migration that had built up over many years, together with the feeling that people’s views on the issue had been ignored: “This is what happens when you get normal people like us and no-one listens to them”;

“I’ve got a family member who’s been trying to get some sort of benefit because she’s had a brain tumour, and she can’t get it, but you see these people coming in and getting a hotel and money, and then it makes you angry. I’m not going to go and smash up the Hilton, but it gets a little bit annoying”;

“You’ve got people who can’t afford a house, and these people come across the Channel illegally and they’re being put in four-star hotels and given money and mobile phones, and they wonder why people are upset about it.”

There was also a feeling that politicians and those who criticised the protesters were personally insulated from the effects of illegal migration: “You see them in poorer areas, not Buckinghamshire or fancy places like that. They’re here where there are no facilities, no more dentists and doctors, and we’re struggling.”

“There’s no deterrent. The package is too attractive”

Participants spontaneously mentioned that 25,000 migrants had arrived on small boats since the turn of the year. For many, the root of the problem was that “there’s no deterrent. The package is too attractive. In England they’re looked after too well compared to other countries”.

People were also frustrated that UK law seemed to be an obstacle to dealing with the issue, while other countries which also respect human rights seemed to have no such problems: “We’re all signatories to the UNHCR. So how can they live in a tent in France, but we have to put them in a hotel? I’ve never understood that”;

“The law is on their side. That’s what’s so mad. As soon as you try and do anything, you’re infringing their human rights. But it’s got to be stopped. Other countries don’t let them in”;

“There was uproar about the planes going to Rwanda, but at least they were trying to do something”. People also wondered how genuine migrants’ asylum claims could be if they had travelled through several safe countries with the specific intention of reaching Britain.

None expected the one-in, one-out deal with France to be effective.

Some thought it was a PR exercise to coincide with President Macron’s state visit (“They released that video of the French police intercepting boats when the President of France was here. That was very convenient”). Even in the unlikely event that it worked as planned, it apparently did nothing about the 50,000 who had arrived since last summer and in the years before that: “You’re just containing it at the level that it’s at. It’s just another empty promise.”

More generally, those who had switched to Labour at the election thought they had little to show for it so far.

Across all the groups, only three examples were given: a higher minimum wage, expanded free childcare, and disabled relative who had qualified for a free boiler. Some wanted Britain to recognise a Palestinian state but thought Starmer was only considering doing so under backbench pressure or to curry favour with Muslim voters like themselves. Several had stopped watching the news as it was all so depressing.

Many said the only thing in Britain that was improving was the weather.

“They should be able to push through hard-choice decisions, but they don’t.”

Nor did they expect things to look up any time soon.

In particular, many anticipated further tax rises in the next budget (“He slated the Tories for the highest tax burden in 70 years, then Rachel comes in and bang. And she’s coming back again in October for more”). Few thought the cost of living had eased, and it was hard to create any financial breathing space: “I’m always trying to find those savings in little bits here and there, because I feel like we’re always waiting for the next hit”; “I feel less secure than I did a year ago”. Several mentioned their employers cutting staff or deciding not to replace leavers because of the rise in National Insurance.

There was a widespread view that with taxes, borrowing and spending already high and rising – but with everyone seemingly unhappy – the problem was that “they’re definitely raising taxes, but where are they spending the money? Where is it all going?”.

“We’ve become too soft. There are TikTok videos about how to claim PIP – tell them you’ve got anxiety, tell them this and that. Motability is turning over £7 billion a year or something. It’s all being abused and mismanaged”;

“What makes it worse is that that they’ve got such a big majority in the House of Commons that they should be able to push through hard-choice decisions, but they don’t. They say, ‘we’re going to do this’ and then they get a bit of pressure and change their minds.”

Many longer-term Labour voters were also disappointed: “They’re on a par with the Tories right now. I had higher expectations because it was Labour and because of the things they were saying. Helping the NHS, helping the average Joe on the street, the cost of living crisis – they’ve not really dealt with it.”

There was therefore some interest in Jeremy Corbyn’s new party. None had a clear idea what the party’s platform would turn out to be, although “he was always quite vocal about Palestinian things and the working class, which is why I liked him”. However, there were worries about how effective the party could be: “It would probably be like voting for the Green Party. I think they’re great but they’re not going to run the country.” And in the current climate, “sometimes you have to make sure. Especially in the Rochdale or Middleton areas, you have to vote Labour to make sure the far right don’t get in, Britain First or whatever”.

“Everyone’s capable of coming back, but they’ve got to win you back”

Those who had defected from the Conservatives had not yet been convinced to go back, though most did not rule out doing so. Having “imploded” and “turned into this whole comedy show” and a “middle-aged white-boy rich person’s party” beset by scandals and broken promises, the Tories “need a full reset”. Though some liked what they had seen of Kemi Badenoch (“she’s strong willed and she puts up a fight. She’s got opinions”), people would take some persuading that the party was united, trustworthy or even relevant (“I think everyone’s capable of coming back, but they’ve got to win you back”). Since the succession of prime ministers was part of what put them off about the Conservatives, none thought another leadership election was the answer (“they need a bit of stability. They were just rotating people in and out”).

Some felt the party should be more open about what it thought had gone wrong during its time in office: “I’d like to hope they are reflecting on what they could have done better, and hold their hands up and say we could have done this and this, we made a mess of this, and this is what we’ll do to become better.”

“I’m sick of nothing being done”

Those who were drawn to Reform UK felt a change was needed from the established parties, not least in being willing to speak out on issues like illegal migration: “For me, it was the immigration, and everyone else seems to be pussyfooting around. And there’s too much having to watch what we say, not what we do”;

“I’m Reform-curious because I’m sick of nothing being done. When you hear him speak you just think it sounds like you will get some of these things done.”

In this respect a number of participants likened Nigel Farage – favourably – to the US president: “He reminds me of Donald Trump. Trump seems to be getting things done. I know he’s not everyone’s cup of tea but I think he’s going about it in the right way;” “When he says it, he actually does it. He follows through”;

“On tariffs for example, he’s gone very hard line, and the next thing you know everyone’s going in for trade deals;” “He sticks to his word and thinks about America first.”

Some remained suspicious of the party’s motives: “In the past we’ve had the National Front and things like that. Now they know they need to have someone in a suit;”

“One of their things is Britain coming first, but you get a lot of people flocking to them who maybe are racist. Maybe the wrong people are on that side”; “they talk a lot about not wanting gay rights”.

Others who were interested in Reform had some concerns, including its wider policies on things like public services and the apparent absence of a wider team: “I agree with the immigration stuff he’s putting out there, but I’m worried about the NHS stuff that has hasn’t addressed”;

“He hasn’t got many MPs, but if he did, who would be his chancellor? Who would be his foreign secretary? He can’t do everything himself, can he?”

“If all else fails, Reform is there and we can press that button”

However, there was a clear sense that Reform were gaining momentum and becoming a more mainstream option, which many of our participants found reassuring – both because it helped alleviate concerns that they were extreme, and made a vote for Reform seem more worthwhile: “It gives you confidence, doesn’t it. Years ago people looked at them as racist whereas now I think we’re getting a clearer picture. They’re not racist if you actually listen to what he says”; “I first heard him on I’m A Celebrity. It just makes sense, what he’s saying”. Some said they could not see themselves voting for the party but “you hope some of their views would have a knock-on effect and you might get more of a hard line from the big parties. You don’t want to go to that extreme, but actually listen and water it down and make it something usable and feasible, rather than the nuclear option. But if all else fails, Reform is there and we can press that button”.

“Something vague and indistinct that doesn’t really make a difference”

Finally, with thoughts turning reluctantly to going back to school, if Keir Starmer were a teacher, what subject would he teach and why?

“Something like PSE [personal and social education]. Something vague and indistinct that doesn’t really make a difference”; “Geography. He’s like a geography teacher, monotone, boring. And he loves Europe”; “History, because he’s always going on about what his dad did”; “English. I can imagine him reading books. He gives an aura of ‘oh, I read poetry’. I don’t think he’s a big personality.”

What about Nigel Farage?

“He’d be the bonkers science teacher. Hands-on, with experiments and things. Whatever he taught he’d get really involved”; “I had a mad history teacher who used to march up and down with a codpiece dressed as Henry VIII. I could see him doing that. He brought it to life”; “English, because he’s actually quite articulate. He’s good at putting himself across and getting his opinions across, and he knows how to read people as well”; “He reminds me of my DT teacher. He said all sorts of things you shouldn’t be saying in class”; “He’d be the caretaker. They were always a bit creepy in our day.”

And Kemi Badenoch?

“She could be the headmistress. It’s early days but my first impressions are that she’s quite a strong character”; “She reminds me of my English teacher. She was very strict. I was always in detention”; “She’d be the PE teacher. You can see her with her whistle – ‘over there, shoo’. And she’d make you get in the cold showers”; “A supply teacher, because I wouldn’t know what to expect.”