Abortion rates continue rising three years after Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade

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Three years after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, the anticipated outcomes have not materialized as expected. While many predicted abortion rates would decline and Democrats would gain a significant political advantage, the opposite has occurred on both fronts.

The Society of Family Planning reported that abortion numbers have actually increased, with 1.14 million abortions performed in 2024 compared to 1.05 million in 2023 and approximately 960,000 in 2022. This represents a monthly average of 95,000 procedures in 2024, up from 88,000 in 2023 and 80,000 in 2022. The increase continues a trend that began in 2017, though numbers remain below the 1990 peak.

Pro-life advocates attribute the rising numbers to several factors, including expanded access to abortion pills through telehealth services that allow prescriptions without in-person visits, and “shield laws” enacted by Democratic-led states to protect abortion providers from out-of-state legal challenges. Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life America, noted that abortion providers are strategically placing clinics near state borders to serve women from restrictive states.

Since Dobbs, 23 states have enacted laws banning most first-trimester abortions, though all maintain exceptions to protect the mother’s life. Despite these restrictions, the data suggests women are finding alternative ways to access abortion services.

Politically, the issue has lost much of its electoral potency for Democrats. While the Dobbs backlash was credited with limiting Republican gains in the 2022 midterms, abortion failed to drive Democratic victories in 2024. Republicans won the presidency, Senate, and maintained House control, with voters prioritizing economic concerns and immigration over reproductive rights.

This Republican trifecta has enabled what pro-life advocates consider their most significant post-Dobbs victory: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would block Planned Parenthood from receiving Medicaid reimbursements for 10 years, eliminating approximately $800 million in annual revenue. The House has passed the measure, and Senate Republicans aim to deliver it to President Trump by July Fourth.

Senate Democrats plan to counter with a forum highlighting the “disastrous” consequences of Republican abortion policies, warning that defunding Planned Parenthood could force 200 health centers to close and affect 1.1 million patients. However, pro-life advocates argue that over 8,800 federally qualified health centers and rural clinics provide women’s services without performing abortions, outnumbering Planned Parenthood facilities 15-to-1.

As the third anniversary of Dobbs approaches, the landscape reflects unexpected outcomes that challenge initial predictions about both abortion access and political consequences.

Read more: Dobbs anniversary sees abortions rise, Democrats fall in defiance of predictions