ANDREW ARTHUR: There’s An Easy Way For Trump To Boost Deportations — But It Ain’t Cheap

Economic concerns aside, immigration was the most important issue in the 2024 presidential election, and the biggest overall for Republican voters. Since returning to office, President Trump has moved quickly to deliver on his promise to initiate “the largest deportation operation in the history of our country,” sealing the Southwest border and implementing multiple policies to drive the unauthorized population down. That said, numerous challenges are impeding Trump’s efforts, and his ability to confront them will determine his ultimate success.

The Center conservatively estimates that at least 15 million unauthorized immigrants are currently in the United States, millions of whom entered under the “open borders” policies of the Biden administration.

Their fiscal impact — on school districts, housing, and medical, public, and social services — is massive. For that reason, significantly decreasing the unauthorized population is critical not only to trimming the federal deficit but also to controlling state and local budget increases. (RELATED: Karoline Leavitt Pressed On What Trump Admin Will Do To Increase Mass Deportations)

The first step is to stem the inflow of new illegal migrants, and on that count the efforts of the president and his “Border Czar”, Tom Homan, have been an unqualified success. Border Patrol apprehensions at the Southwest border in February and March fell 83 percent compared to November and December, but more importantly, that total was nearly 95 percent lower than it had been during the same two months in 2024.

Trump’s reinstatement of the Migrant Protection Protocols, i.e., “Remain in Mexico”, played a role, but more important were tariff threats that spurred the Mexican government to stem northward illicit migration and nearly categorical detention of illegal entrants. In December 2024, Border Patrol released more than 7,041 illegal Southwest border crossers. In March, agents released just three, and none in February.

Migrants now realize they’ll be detained and likely expelled if they “jump the line” and therefore can’t work here to recoup thousands in smuggling fees. Economic considerations have always outweighed geopolitical factors in illegal migration, the Biden administration claims to the contrary notwithstanding. In the interior, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has partnered with Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the FBI, DEA, U.S. Marshals Service and other federal agencies to round up illegal alien criminals for prosecution, detention, and removal.

ICE and its federal partners arrested an average of more than 6,600 illegal aliens per day during Trump’s first 100 days back in office — three-quarters of them criminals — and Homan revealed on April 28 that approximately 139,000 immigrants had been deported on his watch. Still, the president’s media critics aren’t satisfied, complaining about Trump’s deportation policies while at the same time claiming his removal record is lagging behind Biden’s — the equivalent of moaning that a restaurant’s food is terrible and that the portions are too small.

EAGLE PASS, TEXAS – DECEMBER 18: As seen from an aerial view Texas National Guard troops watch over more than 1,000 immigrants who had crossed the Rio Grande overnight from Mexico on December 18, 2023 in Eagle Pass, Texas. A surge as many as 12,000 immigrants per day crossing the U.S. southern border has overwhelmed U.S. immigration authorities in recent weeks. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

But the Biden White House and prior administrations “cooked the books” to improve their deportation totals, including by adding in border returns of illegal migrants, many of whom quickly reentered and again added to the totals, an option now unavailable with the U.S.-Mexico line largely sealed. More importantly, however, it misses the point: the effectiveness of enforcement isn’t measured so much by the number of removals as by the impact those removals coupled with border security are having on the unauthorized population. (RELATED: Tom Homan Says He Saw Something Proving Abrego Garcia Is ‘Absolutely’ MS-13)

Formal removals are expensive, averaging $17,000-plus per individual, so Trump officials are prodding aliens here illegally to voluntarily go home instead. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has budgeted $200 million for an ad campaign to both dissuade would-be illegal migrants from coming and encourage those here unlawfully to self-deport.

And DHS is also offering both travel assistance and $1,000 stipends (total cost: $4,500) for every alien willing to leave voluntarily in lieu of deportation. Conservatives may balk at the idea of paying those here illegally to leave, but the cost savings are undeniable.  Meanwhile, self-deportation (either gratis or for a fee) frees DHS agents to pursue other, higher-profile targets who pose national-security and public-safety risks.

Notably, these Trump efforts have already brought relief to the nation’s long-beleaguered immigration courts. Between Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 and the end of FY 2024, immigration judges’ dockets doubled and then some, to more than 3.9 million pending cases. As a former immigration judge I can assure you that’s a crushing workload, but in February and March that pending-case backlog actually declined for the first time since 2008.

Trump’s immigration-enforcement efforts have faced their share of obstructions, however.

His attempt to use the Alien Enemies Act to remove alleged Tren de Aragua members are currently bottled up in the courts, and an admission by federal prosecutors that Kilmar Abrego Garcia — a purported MS-13 member, human trafficker, and domestic abuser — was deported to his home country of El Salvador in error has triggered a public backlash.

Still, Trump’s deportation policies continue to enjoy popular support, and apparently he and Homan are just getting started. So-called “sanctuary” jurisdictions — states and municipalities that won’t assist immigration officers or actively hinder them — have long been an impediment to effective immigration enforcement. (RELATED: Illegal Migrants Can Net $1,000 From Uncle Sam If They Deport Themselves, DHS Says)

Trump is taking on those sanctuaries, directing the attorney general and DHS to “pursue all necessary legal remedies … to bring non-compliant jurisdictions into compliance” and “develop mechanisms for proper eligibility verification in sanctuary jurisdictions to prevent illegal aliens from receiving federal public benefits”.

Not surprisingly, a federal judge in California is holding up sanctuary funding cuts, but unlike during his first term, Trump has launched and doubled down on his immigration policies early enough in his second one to allow challenges to “percolate” past activist judges to the Supreme Court for resolution. Claims that Trump’s triggering “constitutional crises” when he pushes back on the courts show a poor knowledge of history — fights between the executive and the judiciary are nearly as old as the Republic.

Now it’s time for Republicans in Congress to fund Trump’s efforts. Homan needs more detention space, the immigration courts more judges, and ICE and CBP more boots on the ground. Immigration enforcement is critical to our security — but it ain’t cheap.

Andrew “Art” Arthur is an internationally recognized national-security and immigration expert and the Fellow in Law and Policy at the Center of Immigration Studies. He’s previously served as the staff director for the National Security Subcommittee at the U.S. House of Representatives’ Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.