April Data Wrecks Democrat Panic Narrative

Concerns over an imminent economic downturn during April have been largely undercut by recent data showing stronger-than-expected market performance, easing inflation, and steady retail activity—despite ongoing trade negotiations and tariffs.

Analysts had warned that April could become the worst economic month since 1932, with some predicting significant inflation and recession risk.

However, recent figures suggest those warnings were overstated.

Ruh Roh – narrative crumbling https://t.co/a5iXf3bPrz

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) May 15, 2025

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April had been marked as a flashpoint by several economists and political commentators amid heightened fears over trade tensions and their potential to harm consumer spending and business operations. Market volatility was expected, particularly in light of ongoing negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

But new reports, including analysis from Axios, reveal that the predicted downturn did not materialize.

https://t.co/gcktKrxmN0 pic.twitter.com/4qS1s0iSyz

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Retail sales remained steady, and wholesale prices posted an unexpected drop during the month. Key indicators do not reflect recessionary or inflationary conditions, contrary to early warnings.

Axios reported, “With major indicators from April — the month of peak tariff uncertainty — now in, none show the kinds of recessionary or inflationary conditions implied by business and consumer surveys.”

James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist, said in a note that while companies may be absorbing some of the costs associated with tariffs, inflation remains under control.

“There is little evidence, so far, that tariffs are inflationary and instead profit margins are being squeezed,” Knightley wrote.

“But as Walmart suggested Thursday morning, that is a situation that may not last long.”

Walmart noted that it could consider raising prices depending on how the trade dispute with China continues.

The retail giant’s position on tariffs has drawn attention as analysts continue to evaluate the real-world impact of U.S. trade policy.

Walmart’s comments are being cited by some as a potential early signal of upward price pressure if talks break down.

However, critics point to the shift in how large corporations like Walmart are now being used as barometers for economic distress—despite once being frequent targets of criticism for labor practices and market dominance.

In the broader context, inflation has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, with food prices—including eggs—showing significant stabilization.

Welp. https://t.co/jaXo4HBDEc

— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) May 15, 2025

Meanwhile, the administration has continued pursuing new trade agreements aimed at reshaping global commerce to benefit domestic industry.

A new trade deal with the United Kingdom has been finalized, signaling a commitment to expanding international markets while protecting American jobs.

Despite initial skepticism over the economic impact of tariff policy and trade renegotiations, the April data has quieted much of the panic.

Early forecasts of widespread economic fallout have not been borne out by the numbers.

While economists and market analysts continue to monitor key indicators for long-term trends, the latest reports show resilience in consumer spending and stability in wholesale pricing.

The narrative that tariffs would immediately trigger inflation or a recession has, so far, not been supported by the evidence.

April’s outcome follows a period of transition and policy shifts aimed at returning high-skill manufacturing to the U.S. and challenging existing trade frameworks.

The administration’s efforts to retool the economy through new trade terms and domestic reinvestment have received both praise and criticism.

However, the month’s results suggest that dire forecasts may have been premature.

With the second quarter now underway and major indicators showing stability, economic observers will be closely watching for further data to determine whether this trend continues through the summer.

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