Casey DeSantis leads Byron Donalds in Florida GOP primary before voters learn of Trump endorsement

President Donald Trump’s impact on a hypothetical gubernatorial primary matchup appeared measurable according to polling before and after an endorsement.

As much as conservatives wondered what would come next for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as he termed out of office, the future for the wife of America’s governor piqued the interest of even more people. While many favored Casey DeSantis were she to step into the 2026 gubernatorial race, Trump’s early endorsement of Florida Rep. Byron Donalds may have already knocked the wind out of those sails.

Polling from the James Madison Institute conducted by Targoz Market Research taken before and after knowledge of the president’s backing of Donalds showed the contrast in the potential head-to-head as a slight edge evaporated for the Sunshine State’s first lady.

Where the undeclared DeSantis was said to have had a lead at 28% to 22% over Donalds in April, as of May they were nearly locked at 29% and 28% before JMI brought up Trump’s support. It was then that Donalds took the lead among potential voters at 44% to 25%.

BREAKING: Trump endorsement fuels Byron Donalds ahead of Casey DeSantis in 2026 gubernatorial primary, new poll says

When voters learn of Trump’s endorsement:
Byron Donalds: 44% (+19)
Casey DeSantis: 25%https://t.co/zVC86cClvS

— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) May 9, 2025

“To measure the impact of a Trump endorsement,” JMI told Florida’s Voice, “we asked Republican voters to again tell us who they would vote for in a 2026 primary for Florida governor.”

In fact, 64% of respondents expressed that the president’s blessing made them more likely to support a candidate with 38% contending they would be much more likely. Given the influence, should Donalds go on to win the primary, Trump’s influence on the election would be without question as his endorsement for the congressman had preceded an announcement on running for executive office.

For her part, DeSantis had hinted heavily at her potential for entering the race when she’d been confronted on the possibility in February. When asked directly, the former news anchor had quoted the late-great New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra when she told reporters, “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

The governor had added, “You guys can read into that … I’ve had people coming up to me for years, begging to get her in the fray … She’s passionate, articulate, smart, she’s got rock solid values.”

Whether the nomination would go to DeSantis or Donalds, JMI found that early number showed both with a similar advantage over Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava (D) in the general election. However, Donalds had more voters identifying as undecided at 23% compared to DeSantis’ 18%.

With the president’s thumb on the scale, some questioned the rationale behind DeSantis entering the race at this stage, akin to her husband’s primary challenge for the 2024 presidential election. Still others questioned how much sway Trump had on voters in the Sunshine State after his stated support for Amendment 3 to legalize recreational marijuana, opposed by DeSantis, had failed to earn the needed 60% support to pass in November.

This is why Casey not running is the right decision.

Byron will do good work following DeSantis’ success and I hope to see Ron or Casey involved in the future.

— Robert J Salvador (@RobertJSalvador) May 9, 2025

I wonder how many eventual Governors had to have a pollster inform participants of an endorsement just to claim a lead

— Dan-tom of the Opera (@Libertybibbledy) May 9, 2025

As a Florida voter…it’s Byron all the way!

— MAGA Kitty (@SaveUSAKitty) May 9, 2025

Imagine thinking this is true.

Casey hasn’t even announced she is running and she is competing with you on numbers.

When she announces, Trump will change his endorsement.

— Frost Caldwell (@Frost_Caldwell) May 9, 2025

I’m seeing mixed results. Some have her ahead and some have him. But no matter what any poll may say, the only thing that matters are the votes cast that day.

— Magrathea (@chewybass1) May 9, 2025

Staff Writer

Native of Brooklyn, NY, Kevin Haggerty is a graduate of Hunter College where he studied Cultural Anthropology and Geography. An avid reader and truth seeker, he currently resides in Texas with his wife and their dog and, when he isn’t researching current events and their impacts, you’ll find him spending time with friends and family or working on his next novel.

Latest posts by Kevin Haggerty (see all)

We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, profanity, vulgarity, doxing, or discourteous behavior. If a comment is spam, instead of replying to it please click the ∨ icon below and to the right of that comment. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain fruitful conversation.