CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Wednesday highlighted that the Democratic Party is underperforming in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections when compared to previous election cycles, casting doubt on the possibility of a significant Democratic resurgence in Congress.
During an on-air segment, Enten broke down the results of CNN’s latest polling, noting that Democrats currently hold just a two-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.
Historically, Democrats have performed much stronger at this stage in previous wave-election years.
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“Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot,” Enten said.
“Look at where we are now, Democrats are ahead, but by just two points. Look at where Democrats were already ahead by in 2017 — they were ahead by 7 points. How about 2005 on the congressional ballot? Ahead by 7 points, ahead by 7 points, and now they’re only ahead by 2 points? That lead is less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July.”
Enten noted that while Democrats maintain a narrow lead, it falls well short of the levels they had ahead of the 2006 and 2018 elections — years that resulted in sweeping Democratic gains in the House of Representatives.
The analyst also explained that Democrats have not gained enough ground to suggest a coming shift in control of Congress, adding that public sentiment toward President Donald Trump, who is currently serving his second term, is not translating into a strong anti-Republican reaction.
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“Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point,” Enten said.
In addition to the generic ballot, Enten examined race-by-race metrics that could indicate how many seats may change hands in the upcoming election.
These projections, which are based on partisan leans in congressional districts measured by the Cook Partisan Voting Index, show Republicans outperforming Democrats.
“Okay, House seat ratings with a GOP president like back in 2005 and of course 2017. More net pickup seat chances. Well, last time around, look at that. Democrats were ahead by 33 seats. How about in 2005? Democrats were ahead by seven seats. What’s going on right now? It’s actually Republicans,” Enten explained.
According to Enten, Republicans currently have a 12-seat advantage in net pickup opportunities based on partisan lean.
That trend further indicates the GOP is in a stronger position going into the midterm elections than the Democrats were in either 2006 or 2018.
“So it’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace,” Enten said.
“It’s actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick up opportunities. This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018.”
Enten concluded by comparing the Democrats’ current standing more closely to their performance ahead of the 2024 elections — a year when Republicans ultimately held control of the House.
“And so of course Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024. Will it happen this time around? We’ll just have to wait and see. But for anyone who’s writing the Republican House’s political obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check,” Enten said.
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
The data comes as both parties begin to intensify their midterm strategies.
However, with the current figures trending away from historic Democratic surges, the political landscape heading into November 2026 appears more favorable to Republicans.
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