CNN’s Harry Enten says GOP’s odds of keeping control of House ‘up like a rocket’

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday explained how Republican odds of maintaining control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections have surged.

The Kalshi prediction market gave Republicans a 37% chance of keeping control of the chamber at the time of Enten’s “CNN News Central” segment, which the analyst noted was a substantial increase. He also said Democrats’ current advantage over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot significantly lags behind their October 2017 lead.

WATCH:

“[I]f you go back six months ago, you go back to April, Kate Bolduan, what were we looking at? Well, we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot of taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to the Kalshi Prediction Market odds,” Enten told host Kate Bolduan. “We saw them at an 83% chance. But those odds have gone plummeting down.”

“Now we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances — up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance,” he continued. “So what looked like a pretty clear likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.”

Bolduan asked the analyst what was responsible for the shift, prompting him to explain the statistics of the generic congressional ballot.

“I want to take a look and compare it to 2017, 2018, right? Because that’s sort of the baseline. That was, of course, the first [President Donald] Trump term. That was where Democrats were sort of keeping pace,” Enten said. “You go back to April, look at the generic congressional ballot, what’d you see? You see plus three Democrats in 2025 in April, you see plus three Democrats back in April of 2017. Now jump over to this side of the screen. What happens? Well, the Democrats are no longer keeping pace with the pace that they were setting back in 2017, 2018.”

“You look back in 2017, you saw that the Democrats had leaped up to an eight-point advantage. I remember covering this. I remember a lot of folks, including myself saying, you know what? Republicans look pretty decent right now, in terms of the fact that they had the House, they had the Senate, they had the presidency, but things were likely going to flip,” he added. “And I was looking for the same signs this year. The bottom line is, it hasn’t happened, Kate Bolduan, it hasn’t happened. Democrats have stayed basically steady, they have fallen off the pace.”

The analyst also questioned whether a three-point lead would be sufficient to win the House, given redistricting efforts.

“If both sides max out, we’re probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats,” he said, noting that statistic does not factor the Supreme Court’s present consideration of the Voting Rights Act, which could end the use of race to draw congressional districts.

“If you add that in, then you could be looking about adding 10, 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats … It’s a different new landscape,” Enten said. “And we’re not quite sure how much Democrats will have to be ahead in the national House vote in order to gain control.”

Moreover, a Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted Sept. 11 to Sept.15 found that Republicans led Democrats by 7% on the economy, 13% on immigration and 22% on crime, which Enten warned on “CNN News Central” on Sept. 22 could bode poorly for Democrats in the midterms.

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