DAVID BLACKMON: Energy Will Play A Vital Role In Any Deal To End Russia’s War With Ukraine

With President Donald Trump’s Alaska summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin now in the rear-view mirror, the question becomes what, if anything, was agreed to related to the war in Ukraine.

In his post-meeting interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, President Trump indicated that he and Putin agreed on many aspects of what an ultimate settlement might look like, setting the stage for a second meeting to include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the coming weeks.

Indeed, Mr. Trump spent the entire 7-hour flight back to the nation’s capital on a series of calls with Zelenskyy and other European leaders, already focused on ensuring the follow-up meeting happens and is productive. On their one-on-one call, the New York Times reports that Zelenskyy committed to traveling to Washington, D.C. on Monday for a face to face meeting with President Trump. (RELATED: Trump Says Putin, Zelenskyy To Meet Following Alaska Summit)

The lack of an immediate overall deal coming out of Alaska leaves an array of energy-related matters unsettled, including at least one potential issue that would impact ongoing buyers of Russian crude oil like China and India. Going into the meeting with Putin, President Trump had indicated he was considering sanctioning both of the world’s two most-populous countries for continuing to purchase Russian crude, often on unregulated tankers that are part of a large global “dark fleet,” helping to prop up the Putin government’s ability to fund its war effort.

Trump already executed a big hit on Russia’s economic future by insisting on a pledge from the EU countries to purchase $750 billion in U.S. oil production in the years to come as part of the framework for a comprehensive trade deal. Those volumes would displace hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of crude that would have been purchased from Russia instead.

When pressed by Hannity on the question of secondary sanctions hitting India and China, the President said, “Because of what happened today I don’t think I have to think about that right now,” adding, “I might in a few weeks, but not now.”

In an interview with Fox’s Bret Baier conducted on Air Force One on the flight from Washington, D.C. to Anchorage, President Trump indicated India had already stopped buying Russian crude, saying, “Well he (Putin) lost an oil client, so to speak, which is India, which is doing about 40% of the oil.”

That was a reference to the fact that India’s state-owned refineries halted their large spot purchases of Russian crude as of July 28, after Mr. Trump threatened to hit that country with an additional 25% tariff. However, private refineries owned by companies like Nayara Energy and Reliance Industries have continued buying Russian oil under long-term contracts. So, there is leverage still to be had related to India.

As negotiations on a potential global settlement of the Russia/Ukraine war continue in the coming weeks, the possibility remains for other energy-related issues to play a role. One example relates to exploration of vast reserves of oil known to exist beneath the Arctic region, where Russian companies have gained a great deal of expertise in dealing with the harsh conditions in recent years. President Trump has hinted at the possibility of allowing Russian companies to partner with American companies on oil projects across that region, and in the Bering Sea, where Russia and Alaska come within a few miles of one another.

Such joint operations would not be unprecedented or even unusual. Before Putin’s invasion of Russia, western companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell were engaged in a variety of joint projects with Russian oil companies. Indeed, such joint operations have been carried out in many regions of the world for many decades.

Though largely unexploited, Ukraine’s own energy wealth could also be used as part of the negotiations. Ukraine is known to be rich in energy minerals, including large stores of lithium, titanium, graphite, uranium, oil and natural gas. A good portion of those resources lie beneath the Donbass region, one of Putin’s main war objectives. The country’s reserves of both coal and uraniumrank among the largest on earth.

Oil and energy considerations have always played a role in the starting and settling of wars in modern times, because energy security is national security. The array of such matters swirling today shows the Russia/Ukraine conflict is no different.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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