David McKee: How much trouble is the Conservative Party still in? More than it seems to think

David McKee is a longstanding activist in Hertsmere. He works in financial services.

They are out to get us. They drip poisons into our ear. They tell us the Conservative Party is all washed up, finished; we have become irrelevant. The ‘they’ who tell us these things are our rivals, who aim to demoralise and paralyse us. And yet, our fighting spirit is undiminished, albeit tempered with the knowledge of our electoral predicament. We whistle a happy tune and crack on, but…

…but, suppose – just suppose – we really are irrelevant to the voters. If that is so, how would we know? And what should we do about it?

Conceptually, the business of opposition is straightforward. There are two objectives: to convince the voters that the government is no good, and to commend the opposition as a credible alternative government.

As we can see (below), the first objective was accomplished, less than twelve months into this parliament. It is equally obvious that we have made no headway with the second objective. Disillusioned Labour votes are going everywhere, except to us.

Striking as this is, the most significant fact of all is how the people have lost trust with parliamentary politics (below) and with all politicians. The voters have not fallen in love with Farage. They see him merely as the best of a pretty poor lot.

It is clear we have not been forgiven for our last time in government. As one Shadow Cabinet minister put it recently: “We are landing blows and affecting change, but it is doing little to shift the dial of public opinion.” Kemi Badenoch is aware of the problem as she told Charlotte Ivers of the Sunday Times in August:

“So how long does she need to turn things around? ‘All the research we have done shows it takes about two years for people to forgive the party that has just left office,’ she says. ‘What we need to do is make sure the party exists and is ready when the people are looking for alternatives.”

“All the research we have done…” I wonder how robust and reliable that research is, when we are in the unprecedented and therefore unpredictable landscape of a multi-party system.

Something might turn up to give us a hearing from the people. The problem is that getting a hearing is not enough. We need to win the trust of the British people, which is an altogether harder goal. This is necessary, to be able to tell the voters hard truths about living within our means. As things stand, no one from any political party has the political capital to give the electorate unwelcome news, and still expect to be rewarded with their votes.

Summing up then, we are in an unfamiliar, multi-party landscape, where the parties of protest make the running. Public trust in politics is rock bottom. The voters have little interest in listening to the Conservative Party, and even less in supporting it. Faced with a failing government and surging parties of protest, we make no headway. We are irrelevant. Winning the trust of the people is essential, but it remains a very distant goal.

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. I want to be clear here about what I am suggesting. I am not setting out a plan for the next Conservative government. Nor am I saying how we should win the next election. I am suggesting that we should aim to gain the electorate’s trust. With that, we stand a good chance of getting to the starting gate of a winning campaign, in the runup to the next general election.

If we are to commend ourselves to the electorate, we need to show we are streets ahead of our competitors, not marginally better. Our message has to be positive, and avoid criticising the other parties.

Just saying things gets us nowhere. We need to do something which will attract attention. That something must be substantial and meaningful for the voters. It also needs to be sustained over a lengthy period, otherwise we are open to criticism that we are just pulling a stunt.

If we are to achieve something in opposition, then we cannot do it by compulsion, by passing a law. Only a government can do that. Nor can we do it by making promises. The voters think our promises are hollow. We must achieve it by persuasion. That is very difficult.

There must be a goal for our efforts to which the voters can relate. It must make their lives noticeably better. Winning us votes must be the by-product, not the main point. We need to reach out beyond Westminster, and engage with the voters in the highways and byways of Britain. More than that, we need to engage with voters who are not ‘our kind of people’.

We need ideas that would fit these criteria. The obvious place to look, is the policy renewal process that was conducted earlier this year. Are there any contributions there that we could adapt? There is at least one we could use. I know that for a certainty, because I put it there. It is more than likely that there are others.

There will be some ConHome readers who have submitted their own contributions. If your ideas could be so adapted, we need to talk. We need to establish which ideas stand the greatest chance of success.

We don’t have much time. If the 2026 local elections are as bad as this year’s, then by next May, our MPs will be casting around for fresh ideas. We need to be ready, and that only gives us six months to prepare. Giles has kindly offered to accept your messages (giles@conservativehome.com). If you contact him in the first instance, we can begin to get our act together. Sympathetic MPs or CCHQ officials would also be welcome. We need people like you, to make sure our ideas are well thought through and eminently practicable.

There is one final point, about the siren call of procrastination. Why act now, when we could wait to see if things pan out, as Badenoch hopes? The answer lies in the Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared. A plan, created carefully, thoughtfully and thoroughly, stands a much better chance of success than a plan that’s thrown together overnight. It is much better to create a workable plan and discard it if it is not needed, than make panicky efforts to dream something up at the last minute.

The time for airing disconnected ideas, and random debates that lead nowhere, is past. If the Conservative Party is not to oblige its detractors and just disappear, we need to get ourselves organised in a supportive and constructive way. Time is not on our side. We need to start now.