Today is a big election day. There will be votes for new Governors of New Jersey, New York and Virginia. Unfortunately, Democrats are expected to win all three. (Please go vote and confound the pollsters)
Dems are the precipice of delivering a yuge electoral blow to Trump. They lead in NJ-GOV (only close one), VA-GOV, & NYC Mayor.
Trump’s way underwater in all 3 places (like he is nationally) & is drag.
Historically, a sweep of NYC-NJ-VA means Dems win the House the next year. pic.twitter.com/GuAxerpuuE
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 3, 2025
Hopefully, Republicans outperform the polls, the turnout is so high that the prognosticators are drastically wrong. Even if Democrats win, though, it certainly isn’t the harbinger some would make it out to be.
No Republican has won a statewide race in NY in 20 years.
No Republican has won in NJ or the NYC mayor since 2013. https://t.co/GcWup6zmTu— Sort of Damocles (@Disco_Missiles) November 4, 2025
Not remotely understanding this analysis… These are blue states and the bluest city. https://t.co/J9fOepqcsf
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) November 3, 2025
Harry used to be smarter than this. https://t.co/O8GT5LEpiZ
— Varad Mehta (@varadmehta) November 3, 2025
This is truly a head scratcher. Yes, Virginia is currently led by a Republican Governor, but that was a fluke. Two out three times, a Democrat wins in Virginia.
A reminder that being a pollster does not mean one is informed about politics.
If you think the GOP not winning in NYC, NJ, or VA (when it holds the White House) is a “huge blow” to Trump, you simply do not know the subject. https://t.co/Ifo56m71qS
— Legal Phil (@Legal_Fil) November 3, 2025
Recommended
FFS.
Dems won Virginia and NJ by 5-6 points and are historically Dem. NYC is D+5 bazillion.
This is not an electoral blow to Trump rofl. This is Harry trying to make content because he’s contractually obligated. I get it, but man, Harry knows better and to do this for a check https://t.co/vmGbuKQH5o
— Kevin Tierney (@CatholicSmark) November 3, 2025
Would it be nice for the Republicans to win these Governorships? Of course. Will it happen? That depends on who goes out and votes. Either way, it is not a commentary on conservatism or Trump.
This is how broken they are, not even a year ago they lost every single swing state and the pop vote. They are banging their chest over the….NYC mayor election lmao. And a blue state that is now a 50-50 toss up. Just completely broken https://t.co/dyBd7JnU5a
— MI (@luckyyLefty1027) November 4, 2025
Yes, Democrats winning in NYC and NJ are black swan events and Dems have never, ever won the governor’s seat in VA in recent memory. – said by absolutely no one with one functioning brain cell https://t.co/LMM793x4nK
— Physics Geek (@physicsgeek) November 3, 2025
They are looking for any shred of hope for Democrats.
They are all Demo strongholds. If they are close Trump wins. https://t.co/NapnJNv2y9
— MRDolan to you (@mrdolanspeaks) November 4, 2025
Basically.
Winning the governorship of two D+6 states, and a D+50 City, are actually rather meaningless in determining 2026 elections. https://t.co/P6BNRNuF0N
— America First Insight (@AF_Insight) November 3, 2025
Harry, Trump lost NJ, VA, and NY last year, while crushing Harris, winning the national vote, and winning every single swing State
The GOP winning ANYTHING tomorrow would be a huge blow to the Dems
The idea of a Dem sweep being a “blow to Trump” is ludicrous
You know that https://t.co/Nh5VzSXq5C
— Better Scotusblog (@BetterScotus) November 4, 2025
Let’s just be honest.
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