Do Pentagon Pizza Orders Really Predict War? We Investigated

The Pentagon has been busy. With conflict escalating in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, many federal workers are pulling odd hours to monitor the situation on the other side of the world. And since AI hasn’t taken over every job just yet, those workers need to be fed.

Enter: the Pentagon Pizza Index.

Initially used by the Soviets as a Cold War-era tool for open-source intelligence, according to Euro News, the theory was that an increase in food deliveries to federal buildings might be an indicator of potential crises.

The theory was later popularized by Frank Meeks, a Domino’s franchise owner in the Washington, D.C., area, who told the Los Angeles Times he delivered a record number of pizzas to the CIA on Aug. 1, 1990—the night before Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

Now, an anonymous X account, @PenPizzaReport, has taken up the mantle of monitoring the activity of pizza places neighboring the Pentagon, as reported live on Google Maps. (RELATED: Mossad’s Operation To Wipe Out Iranian Military Brass Is Something Out Of A Hollywood Film)

Although @PenPizzaReport provides valuable information by capturing the data and sharing it publicly, what it doesn’t do is compare its findings to the timeline of global events to determine whether the increase in pizza orders is one of correlation or causation. So that’s what the Daily Caller did.

The timeline:

It’s Thursday, June 11, at 2:31 p.m., and @PenPizzaReport shares that, “For the 2nd day this week, traffic at local pizza locations nearby the Pentagon have been abnormally low.”

However, pizza sales in the area begin to normalize around 4 p.m., before @PenPizzaReport reports that the Domino’s near the White House “has SURGED in activity” by 5 p.m., and pizzerias near the Pentagon follow suit with what @PenPizzaReport called “unusual for a Wednesday” at around 7:05 p.m.

In the final minutes of June 11, @PenPizzaReport shares a large spike in traffic at a late-night pizzeria near the Pentagon just before it closes. And as the restaurant shut its doors and the new day broke, the world was entering the end of Trump’s 60-day period for Iran to make a deal as per Trump’s ultimatum.

It’s June 12, and pizza sales in Arlington are fluctuating by time and location. By 6:59 p.m., @PenPizzaReport reports that “nearly all pizza establishments nearby the Pentagon have experienced a HUGE surge in activity,” before adding 10 minutes later that all those locations saw an immediate dip in service.

By the end of the hour, Israel had launched its first missile strikes targeting infrastructure and leaders of Iran’s nuclear program, according to USA Today.

After the launch, business at local Domino’s locations picks up and maintains high activity for the rest of the night.

Local pizzerias continue to experience consistently high activity levels throughout the week, with a particularly abnormal surge at one restaurant on June 15 at 3 a.m.

Very late night pizzeria is experiencing very high levels of activity.

As of 2:59am ET pic.twitter.com/XiH8bOSgjo

— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 15, 2025

The day continues with @PenPizzaReport noting “above average levels of activity as of 11:28 a.m.” An hour later, journalists were announcing the death of Gen. Mohammad Kazemi on the same platform. Sales dipped immediately after the announcement and continued to fluctuate throughout the day.

On June 17, @PenPizzaReport reported at 11:08 p.m. that the Domino’s closest to the White House “had elevated levels of traffic for about 4 hours.”

On June 18, Iran and Israel traded missile attacks as President Donald Trump made his demands clear, saying Iran must offer an “unconditional surrender.”

These actions were followed by a drop in pizzeria traffic, with @PenPizzaReport adding, “I wouldn’t want it for lunch either if I had been doing overtime at the Pentagon the past week.”

Low traffic at majority of pizzerias nearby the Pentagon.

As of 2:07pm ET.

I wouldn’t want it for lunch either if I had been doing overtime at the Pentagon the past week. pic.twitter.com/DOm4rOJ0Qs

— Pentagon Pizza Report (@PenPizzaReport) June 18, 2025

The day continued with unusual rises and falls before closing.

Although there appears to be a general pattern of rising activity before conflicts, followed by a steep decline once events are reported publicly, a control study would need to be conducted before determining whether such trends can be used to predict an immediate crisis.

The Google Maps app does show average activity for that day of the week, but a year-over-year comparison would show whether these trends are seasonal. However, @PenPizzaReport was not active as of June 2024, and information regarding activity at specific dates and times in June is not easily accessible — making it difficult to conclude that the Pentagon Pizza Index is a reliable form of intelligence.

Still, with Trump saying he will make a decision within the next two weeks on whether to get directly involved in Iran, it’s possible that keeping an eye on pizza deliveries could offer clues on what — and when — he’ll decide.