Meteorologists are shifting focus from intense winter storms to monitoring potential tropical activity in the coming days, as abnormal conditions emerge in the tropics.
Normally, the tropical regions enter a quiet phase during the winter months, making any signs of development in mid-January highly uncommon.
The FOX Forecast Center reports that no tropical formation has ever been documented in January within the Eastern Pacific basin throughout recorded history. The earliest known system in that area was Tropical Depression One-E, happening in late Apr. 2020.
A zone of low pressure is expected to organize by Thursday, aided by minimal wind shear beneath a broad high-pressure ridge positioned over the West Coast. This setup could provide the right amount of instability to support storm development. (RELATED: Winter Returning With Fury As Painfully Freezing Temperatures Set To Conquer Eastern United States)
As defined by the National Weather Service, wind shear refers to variations in wind speed and/or direction at different altitudes.
The FOX Weather Tropical Threat product indicates a possibility of development as soon as Saturday, potentially near the western coast of Baja California.
Fortunately, this system poses no immediate danger to land and is not anticipated to form over the next seven days, though forecasts could evolve.
TROPICS? IN JANUARY?
It’s at least mildly possible this weekend into early next week in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. A vigorous upper level trough may help spin up a surface low over the still warm ocean waters. Many models show at least a brief window for a… pic.twitter.com/TrmGd7HvkZ— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) January 14, 2026
The National Hurricane Center designates a system as a possible tropical cyclone to enable regular advisories when it hasn’t yet become a tropical depression or storm, but could produce winds of 39 mph or higher affecting land within 72 hours.
The current attention comes on the heels of an active 2025 hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, which featured 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
The Atlantic basin recorded 13 named storms, including five hurricanes — of which four reached major status (Category 3+).
Hurricanes Erin and Humberto intensified to 160 mph winds during August and September activity, respectively, while Hurricane Melissa closed out the season as a catastrophic Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds impacting Jamaica. (RELATED: At Least 25 States To Be Impacted By Winter Storm Threatening Heavy Snow)
Remarkably, no hurricanes struck the United States this past season — a rarity in modern records.
The most recent season without a hurricane making landfall into the U.S. occurred in 2015, over a decade ago.
The Daily Caller will continue to monitor the possible tropical development in the Eastern Pacific.
