Georgia Gilholy: Labour must not buckle to New Delhi’s visa demands just in order to land a trade deal

Georgia L Gilholy is a journalist.

Since the United Kingdom exited the European Union, successive politicians have posited a string of shiny new trade deals as our would-be spoils. The results have been lacklustre, but at least the “Leave” vote binned one layer of bureaucrats- even if the remaining ones have proved wanting.

One thing our friends in Whitehall have been chipping away at since being forced to bid farewell to Brussels is a Free Trade Deal (FTA) with India. Multiple administrations have been in talks on this matter since January 2022. Could the end be in sight? But last month Labour sources told The Guardian that the talks are “90 per cent” resolved.

But not for the first time there is a huge elephant in the room: immigration.

Multiple outlets report that, under this new FTA, any new UK visas for Indian nationals would be limited to 100 per year. Others hint that Narendra Modi has gotten his way and that thousands more will be granted. Under Rishi Sunak, we were also told that “thousands” of visas could be dished out to New Delhi if a post-Brexit FTA were struck.

We were later told that immigration was a “red line” the Tories were unwilling to cross. But that same year, with no FTA on the horizon, Indian nationals still received approximately 127,000 work visas, making them the largest group of work visa recipients by nationality. If student and other visas are included, the figure was around a quarter of a million, with many on the latter permits entering the grey economy. Since 2016 some 1.2 million Indians have migrated to the UK. So, regardless of our evolving trade relations, Indian nationals are already arriving in Britain in huge and unprecedented numbers, a fact that myopic press coverage of these FTA talks routinely ignores.

The government’s negotiations could also concede a two-year social security exemption for Indian nationals working on our shores. This is at the same time as National Insurance contributions for the rest of us are hiked while living costs soar and relative wages have not risen since 2008. If this does come to pass, the “Two Tier Kier” meme will surely become inexhaustible. That is if such a move would even be politically survivable for Starmer.

Young people may be assumed to be more “progressive” and pro-immigration, but they are bearing much of the brunt of this crisis.  A whopping 1 million 16 to 24-year-olds across the UK are now classified as “NEET” (Not in Education, Employment, or Training). Meanwhile, millions of foreign nationals have entered the UK for employment, especially since the mid-2000s. It hardly takes a genius to connect the dots.

As someone descended from immigrants, I am well aware that small-scale migration can have a net positive or a negligible impact on a society where the majority culture is healthy and respected. This is not the current situation. Moreover, the evidence is clear. Mass immigration is bad for the economy, and it is bad for our society, and finally: no one asked for it.

If Labour continues this failed experiment, at the expense of British-born workers, at the very least they will surely pay at the ballot box in 2029.