GOP Could Suffer Same Crisis That Fueled Joe Biden’s Demise: Gas Prices

It’s the summer of 2022.

President Joe Biden’s honeymoon phase is over. Russia is grinding away in eastern Ukraine. And red-hot, post-pandemic inflation is ripping through the U.S. economy.

Americans are pissed, in large part due to record-high gas prices. One CNBC poll released in July 2022 shows that only 30% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, lower than at any point under both the first Trump administration and Obama’s administration. For an election year, it’s a disaster, and the Biden cabinet knows it. They try to blame Putin’s invasion — the “Putin price-hike” — but the talking point doesn’t stick. Then, they blame Republicans. That fails, too. (RELATED: The White House Is Already Trying To Take Credit For Falling Gas Prices. Here’s Why That’s Malarkey)

The Biden administration had tried to take executive action to lower prices. They drained America’s strategic petroleum reserves, reserved for emergencies, to curb price increases. Biden called on Congress to pass a federal gas tax holiday, but nothing came of it. It was a PR stunt.

In the midterms, Democrats lost control of the House and their mandate. Sky-high gas prices certainly played a role in the GOP’s victory, but they also fueled the demise of Biden’s entire presidency. The summer of 2022 was the beginning of the end. Americans would never trust him and his cabinet again to guide the U.S economy and tamp down inflation.

WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 22: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about gas prices in the South Court Auditorium at the White House campus on June 22, 2022, in Washington, DC. Biden called on Congress to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Now, thanks to the war with Iran, Americans are on the verge of feeling the same pain that they felt at the pump in late 2021 and throughout 2022. And if prices do rapidly escalate further, Republicans will be all but guaranteed to lose the House, as Democrats did four years prior.

U.S. crude oil prices have surged, up 6% on Monday, or $5 per barrel. Brent, the international oil benchmark, showed a 7% increase. According to NBC News, “Retail gas prices move about 2.5 cents for every $1 move in the price of crude oil, so already a nearly 13-cent-per-gallon increase could be on the horizon for consumers.”

Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, which tracks retail gas prices, predicted that Americans will see an average of $3 per gallon by the end of Monday.

With prices cycling in major states, the national average is now up to $2.96/gal. I believe we may see it touch $3/gal later tonight as the jump in prices begins to show up at more stations.

— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) March 2, 2026

Most of Iran’s oil goes to China, and the country only accounts for approximately 5% of total global output. However, Iran has great influence over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s daily oil demand flows on tankers. Even if Iran does not fully shut down the passageway, many ships will not take the risk. NBC News reported Monday that “at least six of the leading cargo shipping companies … were halting or diverting ships that were originally set to sail through the key waterway.” More data shows that traffic through the Strait has already dropped 80%:

⚠️📉 Strait of Hormuz: Data Confirms Near-Total Shutdown.

The impact of the Iran War is now visible in the data. On March 1, traffic through the world’s most vital energy artery hit a cliff, dropping 80.8% below the 7-day average.

The War Stats (01-03):
• Total Crossings: 18… pic.twitter.com/1UvNaU6vnq

— Windward (@WindwardAI) March 2, 2026

A family sits against the backdrop of a dockyard off coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, 2026. (Photo by Giuseppe CACACE / AFP via Getty Images)

Further, Iran can wage economic war against the U.S. and the Gulf States without completely decimating oil infrastructure in the Gulf region. Rather, it can harass oil and natural gas refineries with drones that gum up production, force costly repairs, and keep investors and traders across the globe in a constant state of distress.

Aramco refinery in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest gas oil (diesel fuel) refinery and one of the world’s biggest, was shut down after a drone strike in the area, Bloomberg reported Monday. The plant refines approximately 550,000 barrels of gas oil per day, which is a crucial industrial fuel for heavy machinery, ships, and trains. Gas oil futures spiked over 20%, the biggest same-day gain since March 2022, according to Bloomberg. 

🚨🇮🇷🇸🇦 BREAKING: Iranian drones have struck Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility. INSANITY.

Ras Tanura is the single largest oil export terminal on the planet. It handles roughly 6.5 million barrels per day — nearly 7% of global oil supply flows through this one facility. pic.twitter.com/6cxBu7dKFf

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) March 2, 2026

In Qatar, a state-run energy company that produces liquid natural gas (LNG) announced Monday that it halted production “due to military attacks on QatarEnergy’s operating facilities,” according to NBC News. Natural gas prices in the U.S. spiked about 5% on Monday morning, while Europe saw natural gas futures explode 45%.

“While much of the focus is on crude oil, Qatar is the second largest exporter of [liquified natural gas] behind the USA,” oil industry analyst Andy Lipow wrote Sunday, according to NBC News. “LNG tankers are also being diverted away from the region. A disruption in LNG would result in higher natural gas prices, especially in Europe.”

All of these developments could have a devastating ripple effect that not only increases gas prices in America but could potentially trigger a major economic downturn, warned Yves Smith, a former Goldman Sachs employee and finance expert:

With advanced economies, particularly the US, as well as China, mired in high levels of potentially-crisis-causing private debt, and China already in deflation, an additional shock of high energy price and even availability risks a severe economic downturn, which could ripple powerfully into frothy financial markets as fast-footed traders sell to preserve gains. Admittedly, of the big economies, Europe which is already suffering economically due to the self-inflicted harm of Russian energy sanctions, would presumably take the biggest hits. But the entire global economy would take damage under a scenario of markedly more expensive oil and LNG, and even shortages. That means China too, since it would see lower exports in a global recession.

This is not the kind of news that will help Republicans on election day. If the war continues apace, with Iran retaliating by targeting oil assets, Republicans will be in for a rude awakening. Summer ’26 will feel strikingly familiar to summer ’22. And like Biden and the Democrats, Trump and Republicans will be utterly cooked, the beginning of the end.