GOP strategist predicts Dems winning House in 2026 could actually ‘kill’ them in 2028

GOP strategist Alex Castellanos forecast Monday that if Democrats retake the House in 2026, it could backfire and damage their long-term political prospects.

Democratic Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett said Sunday on “Alex Witt Reports” that if Democrats were to regain a majority in the chamber, they would probe President Donald Trump on numerous issues. Castellanos warned on “2WAY Tonight” that such a strategy would only empower Trump to further dominate the political landscape — and push Democrats even further to the left.

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“We’ve got an election in 18 months for the House, and Republicans, you know, a break pedal off-year election. The world’s going to be very different, and there are going to be investigations and impeachments and charges, maybe court battles. We’re going to be back in large part where we were,” Castellanos said. “Donald Trump is once again going to be the man who defines what the Democratic Party is. And I think the way Democrats are going to separate themselves is the odd and outraged primary. They’re going to continue to go left. I don’t think that story is finished yet. We’re going to get more, not less. I don’t think this — that’s the anti-establishment we’re going to see. And that’s where the money’s going to be.”

Host Mark Halperin asked the GOP strategist to clarify what he meant.

“Political money for Democrats,” Castellanos said. “Big money, little money.”

“[Trump’s] going to suck up everything. He’s the leader of the Democratic Party, and he’s going to be more so,” he added. “There’s no oxygen other than him. If that happens— it may not — [winning] the House may kill Democrats because it keeps them in the past.”

Vice President JD Vance made a similar point on May 2 on “Special Report with Bret Baier,” saying that “Trump is the leader of the Democratic Party,” pointing to the party’s constant opposition to him.

NBC News senior national politics reporter Jonathan Allen expressed agreement with Castellanos.

“I agree with Alex here that the mistake Democrats are going to make, especially if they pick up the House, is that they will continue to be an anti-Trump coalition instead of figuring out what the hell their party is for in the next, you know, five, ten, 15, 20 years,” he said.

University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato, on “Raging Moderates,” Friday, flagged a largely overlooked indicator that suggests Republicans could keep control of the House in 2026. He highlighted an analysis released on May 14 in his Crystal Ball newsletter that found a majority of the public — 58% — anticipate the GOP will maintain their majority, an indicator he said has frequently proven reliable.

However, Sabato said he disagreed with the public’s prediction.

“Listen, so long as we end up taking the House, which I fully anticipate that we will do, and we are gonna work hard to obviously help our Senate colleagues as well,” Crockett said Sunday. “Then, as someone who serves on the Oversight Committee and hopes to lead the Oversight Committee, I can guarantee you that we will do what we are supposed to do as constitutionally sworn members of the House.”

“Which means that we will conduct oversight, that means that we will investigate, we will look at whether or not this president himself has violated the Emoluments Clause as relates to say such things as getting a $400 million plane from the Qataris,” she added. “We also will make sure that we’re looking into all these business deals that they have going on.”

Democrats impeached Trump twice during his first presidential term. Special counsel Robert Mueller also investigated Trump’s 2016 campaign for alleged links to Russia.

Trump faced four criminal cases during his 2024 campaign and a civil fraud case brought by Democratic New York Attorney General Letitia James, who campaigned on prosecuting Trump.

A Democratic-led House committee also investigated the events surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

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