Grant Shapps: Seventy rural seats hold the keys for a Conservative route back to No10

Grant Shapps is a former Defence Secretary, Transport Secretary, and Party Chairman and was MP for Welwyn Hatfield 2005-2024

Our party continues to reflect on the outcome of last year’s General Election, undertaking a root-and-branch review of what worked, what didn’t and what we must do to win in 2030.

An essential part of this journey is re-engaging with rural communities.

The Conservative Party has always been the natural steward of the environment – our very name means to conserve. By contrast, in just one year, Labour has launched an ideological assault on the countryside.

Their reckless policies have undermined the hard work of farmers and rural families, threatening the delicate balance that sustains our food supply and protects the land they’ve cared for for generations.

New research from Conservatives Together, the independent grassroots organisation focused on building an election-winning Conservative machine, has identified the 70 rural constituencies that we must win to return to government and thereby help repair the damage that Labour has inflicted.

‘Rebuilding the rural vote’ is an honest look at why our Party lost traditional countryside voters, and what we need to do to rebuild their trust and our voter base.

We lost ground by failing to recognise shifting rural demographics and by overlooking issues like housing affordability. A lack of engagement with younger rural voters – many helping on family farms – and silence on key environmental concerns further cost us support where it mattered.

Our report also highlights that the lack of modern campaigning techniques and the selection of non-local candidates in rural seats played a part in the Tory vote share in these rural areas dropping by an average of 23.9 per cent versus 20 per cent across the board. Similarly, the average swing to Labour was 14.5 per cent versus 11.3 per cent nationally.

We’ve identified 70 winnable seats that can help reverse this destruction and deliver a Conservative majority at the next election. Spanning the length and breadth of the country- from the Forest of Dean to Derbyshire Dales, Ely and East Cambridgeshire to Ynys Mon – these seats have slim majorities by incumbents and together represent 5.2 million voters, 10.8 per cent of the total electorate. But beyond identifying the specific seats, our new report also sets out recommendations as to how to win them back.

Fast-track early selections: rural candidates must be in place as soon as possible to build profile, trust, and visibility.

Provide targeted Association support: focus on specialised funding, field officers and training to the 43 winnable associations facing the ‘rural challenge.’

Develop a rural campaign playbook: a detailed guide for rural campaigns, rooted in data and best practices to equip candidates and associations properly.

Regularly monitor rural opinion: invest in consistent polling, focus groups, and voter feedback to ensure real-time strategy adjustments.

Recapturing the rural vote is dependent on these practical steps. The scale of the challenge is large, but with the right infrastructure, the right tools and the right candidates it is one we can overcome.

For the future of our countryside and our country, the route to Number 10 must begin in our rural communities.