Guy Miscampbell: What lessons can British Tories take from Poilievre’s Portillo moment?

Guy Miscampbell is a Director at the pollster JL Partners, a former special adviser, and a former consultant to the Conservative Party of Canada.

Four months ago, I wrote confidently: “in 2025 Pierre Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada.” How wrong I was. Poilievre had his Portillo moment – losing Carleton – and I had mine: repeating Gove’s infamous miscall that Portillo would shape the future of the right.

At final tally, the Liberals ended with around 169 seats – just shy of a majority. The Conservatives made gains, finishing on 143, but far off where I’d expected in January. Not exactly the track record a pollster wants. So how did it happen?

Canada watchers will know well. By 2024, Poilievre had built a commanding lead. Justin Trudeau fatigue was real, and cost-of-living pressures on housing, immigration, groceries, and crime had put Liberal failures front and centre. Not only that, Poilievre wasn’t just in the right place at the right time: he was the right man at the right time, having warned about the dangers of inflation caused by Liberal policies for years. He looked like the answer.

Then two things changed. First, Trudeau was replaced by the uncontroversial and competent Mark Carney. Second, Donald Trump re-emerged, dragging Canadian politics into his orbit with a provocative call to make Canada the 51st state.

That second shift was fatal. Nothing is more politically toxic for Canadian Conservatives than being seen as Trump-adjacent. In 2021, my focus groups were full of warnings: “they’re just like the Republicans.” It was always unfair, but the same happened in 2025; the more Poilievre was linked to Trump, the more damage it did.

Instead of the cost of living, managing Trump became the ballot question. With the threat of tariffs looming, the new Liberal leader (a former central banker and esteemed economist) suddenly looked like a safer bet. The ballot question changed, and with it the CPC’s fortunes – just as it did in 2021 when they were set to win, only to have a resurgent wave of Covid change the election into a question of who would best manage the pandemic.

What does this mean for Poilievre, whom many British Conservatives have held up as an inspiration? There has been much sniping about the campaign direction, and its strategy, often from people positioning for the aftermath.

But step back for a moment. The CPC’s voteshare of 41.3 per cent is the highest since 1988, and they made gains in parts of the so-called 905 (named after the area code that surrounds Toronto) such as Richmond Hill, as well as York, Windsor, and Kitchener, which were former union strongholds. The path to a future Conservative government is clearer.

What blocked it was the near-total consolidation of the progressive vote, with the NDP (the traditional leftist party) slumping to 6.3 per cent and only 7 MPs. The resulting tactical voting brought the Liberal vote to 43.7 per cent, ending Tory hopes.

It is easy for Conservatives to be disappointed in this result, and even easier for them to fairly ask how they lost a 25-point lead. Some might even blame the leader.

But that wouldn’t be fair.

As I wrote earlier in the year, much of the gain was down to Poilievre’s authentic communications and leadership style, and the fact that they were tied to a compelling worldview – his worldview. Another leader might have shed fewer votes come election day, but only because they started from a lower base.

A more credible criticism is that the election became a referendum on Trump, while the CPC stuck rigidly to their planned cost-of-living campaign. That’s certainly the view of some, and debate over it has sparked a minor Conservative civil war. It points to a deeper risk: a one-note Conservatism unable to adapt when the ballot question shifts.

British Conservatives should take note: when fundamental issues dominate, whether economic or security-based, there’s no value leading on secondary issues.

As for the CPC, Poilievre intends to stay on, and unlike in the UK, he can do that without a seat for now. The Liberals now face the baggage of three terms and mounting economic headwinds. Another election in 18–24 months is not beyond the realms of possibility, and if Carney hasn’t made significant progress you would expect him to lose the rematch.

British Conservatives should take three lessons. One: authenticity builds momentum. Two: if you can’t adapt, it doesn’t matter how right you are. Three: if the left unites, you lose, no matter how good you are. We were right to look for Canada for answers. We are even more right to look for warnings.