Have The Tories Decided to ‘Tack To The Centre’?
A wild set of briefings reached Guido a few weeks back making the mischievous suggestion that the Tories – facing certain electoral wipeout – had made a conscious strategic decision to ‘tack to the centre’ and abandon the coalition of non-university educated voters that propelled them to victory in 2019. Now multiple Tory sources say yesterday’s reshuffle bears that out…
‘Tacking to the centre’ is Westminster la la land speak and has no real world relevance to voters (‘left / right / centre’ is a political nerd invention, not a paradigm for how voters think). But if the Tories have decided they are only interested in prioritising the votes of a reducing number of ‘wet Tory’ seats mainly in the south of England, they are signing their own death warrant…
One problem is the LibDems, who remain competitive in most ‘centrist’ Tory territories. Tories at risk from the yellow peril say, so far, LOTO has had nothing to say about the LibDems whatsoever…
Then there’s the vibe shift on the right – a phenomenon the Tories have almost entirely failed to grasp so far. This cuts across both policy and campaigning style. Concern with immigration is the number one salient issue with every segmentation of voters, regardless of social class or education. The party’s lack of decisiveness on leaving the ECHR is costing it dearly with Tory to Reform switchers…
In reality, little is known about the direction that the new LOTO will actually take. If it’s a ‘tack to the centre’ it’s likely the outcome will be way off where any kind of target voters are, and certainly not the way to rebuild a broad governing coalition…
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